Syria: A Turning Point in History (incl two updates)

Over the last couple of days, many bloggers, journalists and various political analysts have agreed that the Russian bombing campaign has signalled a fundamental change in “international relations” or the power balance in the world. Many were surprised at both Russia's actions and at the US's lack of reaction. Most agreed that the US were “caught with their pants down”.

Russia has filled the moral vacuum that the US and its subservient states have left through their indulging in war crimes against innocent people the world round. Russia has also supplanted the United States as the dominant military power at least in the eyes of many people and nations in the world. Links to evidence of this are in my previous article, The Battle For Syria. The US has not openly contested this because they now, at last, are facing that it is true.

This situation has been building for years. Russia has not hidden its moves in creating alliances nor with supplying Syria with weapons and other diplomatic support. Russia has announced its moves in advance and emphasised that they were operating within international law at all times. Which they have been and continue to do.

Here is the incisive Daniel Patrick Welch speaking to these points on PressTV (you can view the short video interview at the link). West should compensate Russia for fighting terrorists in Syria: Pundit

So if Russia has been so transparent, how is it that the US were caught so 'flat-footed'?

Hubris, and the consequences of psychopathy. No doubt, there are many capable analysts within the US administration but they will not be listened to by their 'superiors'. These superiors, by definition almost, would be psychopaths and narcissists simply by being adept at climbing the corrupt bureaucratic structure that is the US administration and its agencies. Once enamoured with the perception of their own power, these top officials are not going to want to listen to any reality that will contradict that perception. Why should they bother their beautiful minds with this unpleasantness?

So, back to reality with the benefit of hindsight. The US has been desperate to turn Syria into another Libya. Two years ago, the NATO jihadi forces were losing ground and the false flag chemical attack was facilitated by Saudi Arabia but it backfired badly due to Russian naval force and Russian diplomacy. Following that incident, the jihadis were seriously vulnerable and the US, NATO and its allies in the region threw everything they could at the Syrian Arab Army. No expense was spared.

The battle raged on with the advantage swinging to and fro. Hezbollah forces, which had proved very effective, were increased and the al Quds special forces from Iran entered the fray. The Syrians held on. The Kurds, who had previously struck a deal for regional quasi independence with the Damascus govt in return for non-involvement particularly on the side of the jihadis, changed sides.

While under the guise of attacking ISIL forces, the Kurds, in fact, were acting in concert with them. ISIL forces would attack a town killing many residents and forcing the survivors to flee. Then the town would be handed over to the incoming Kurdish forces which happily expanded Kurdish territory and allowed ISIL to progress to the next target without the need to commit troops to continue the occupation of the vanquished town or region. Win-win! And all the while it was presented to the western public as the freedom fighting Kurds chasing off the bad-bad jihadis. Penny from Penny For Your Thoughts has many articles detailing this.

But still the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) held on. If NATO was to win, it would need to invade in person. This time they thought they could pull it off because the US Air Force (together with the israelis) had been flying their bombers over Syrian territory with impunity and it looked (to them) that the Russians would not intervene. So, Turkey released many thousands of refugees from their holding camps and helped them to flood into Europe. Refugees from anywhere the US could find them were also aided in travelling to Europe.

Like an orchestra following the instructions of their conductor, the western media with one voice erupted into a chorus of sympathy for the poor refugees. This was accompanied with calls for 'humanitarian intervention' and governments such as Australia were pressured to send aircraft to participate in the expected onslaught. The message was, 'Let's bomb Syria to stem the tide of refugees that are escaping our bombing and our terrorists in Syria'!

Meanwhile, the US gained permission from the Turkish government to use their Incirlik airbase for flying their bombing runs into Syria from. This meant that the US jets were based minutes away from Syrian targets instead of hours away from the Persian Gulf area. This was quickly going to be a serious problem for Syria.

At this point, Russia started expanding their facilities at their airbase at Latakia and offered to join with NATO and co-ordinating with them in bombing ISIL. This was rejected, of course. So, Russia increased its supply of more sophisticated weapons to Syria which immediately made a difference on the battlefield. Russia also started supplying air defence missiles and Russian crews to train the SAA in their use. Russia made it clear that Russian personnel would be in the field with these missile batteries so if the US wanted to attack them, then they would also be attacking Russian military forces. Not a good idea. Russia had effectively created a 'no-fly zone' for US/NATO forces over Syrian soil.

We can now see that the missiles were also put in place to protect the Russian air force before it started to attack the jihadist forces (ISIL and anyone else fighting the SAA). We can also see that it would be imperative that the missile batteries were manned by Russians. Once the air defences were in place, more Russian fighter jets were brought in. I hesitate to introduce the tired metaphor of chess into this scenario but the game of chess was designed to emulate war and its attendant strategic thinking. And we can see this very clearly in Russia's patient and systematic moves to put all their pieces in place and backing each other up before an attack is implemented. Also, as in chess, the opponent will be trapped by being pushed to the edge of the board which in this case will be Syria's borders. More on this below. It is all there in the open if you have eyes to see and can think creatively (unless you are blinded by your own hubris, that is).

Perhaps one move that was not announced till after it was complete (though elements in the US 'intelligence' agencies must have been aware of it) was the establishment of an intelligence sharing centre in Baghdad between Iran, Iraq, Syria, Hezbollah and Russia. Russia has put together a genuine coalition to fight for Syria's freedom and this is its co-ordination centre (one wonders how they have managed to protect it from attack in chaotic Iraq.) It is reasonable to assume that it will be used to fight the jihadis in Iraq once they have been flushed out of Syria. The US is going to be pushed out of the Middle East. The US's impotence in the face of a coalition of ME countries backed by Russia and China will not be lost on the likes of Turkey, Saudi-Arabia, israel and Qatar. Oh, and Bahrain and Kuwait. These US vassals will be forced to behave much more reasonably once they realise they are on their own.

Putting a toe in the water to test the temperature is not Russia's style. Once it enters the water, as it has, we can be sure it has a plan to see the operation all the way through – to win convincingly. Past behaviour also tells us that they plan for multiple eventualities and have a penchant for reading their opponent's moves in advance. Russia has not entered the Syrian fray to win points or just maintain some status quo. War has been too costly for Russia in the past and there is too much at risk in the present.

Russia will want to change the way international politics is played - a different status quo and one that does not rely on the US honouring its word only to have it go back on it at a later point. Russia has had enough of that. Russia will want to take the US's international support away from it so that it can never dominate the world again with its criminal behaviour.

So how are they going to do that? By handing the European and ME vassal states the consequences of their actions in supporting the US. This will be an experiential and tactile/kinaesthetic lesson. Here is an excellent map showing the locations of the various forces in Syria.

source and larger format
accompanying article

The first thing the Russians are going to do is secure their bases at Latakia and Tarsus. This means putting as much distance between their bases and the jihadis as quickly as possible. There are also pockets of jihadis near Homs. Russia has already started attacking these pockets in the midst of government held territory. Next I expect the coalition of Russian, Syrian, Iranian and Hezbollah forces to push the jihadis north of Latakia through the Idlib province towards the Turkish border and link up with the SAA forces around Aleppo. There are now indications that this is in progress. This area has traditionally been the home of many Christian Armenians.

This push will present the Turkish government with a no-win choice. Either they prevent the jihadis entering Turkey (from whence they came) and allow the Syrian coalition forces to destroy the jihadis against the Turkish border, or, the Turkish government will allow the jihadis to cross into Turkey and hope they can redeploy these drugged-up lunatics back into Syria but through somewhere else along the border.

But that will just delay the inevitable. And that inevitability will be accommodating thousands of trigger-happy crazies on Turkish territory and coming down off their drugs. It's not going to be pretty. So maybe it's best to help the Russians and Syrians kill them by jamming them up against the Turkish border in the first place?! Besides, the Kurds who occupy the land along the Turkish border to the east are already talking to the Russians and making conciliatory noises. So if Turkey decides to redeploy its crazies back into Syria, it will push them into the teeth of the Kurds who are changing sides yet again as they perceive that the wind has shifted.

Over the last century, the Kurdish leaders have proved singularly inept at playing 'musical chairs' with the Western Powers who have always been in control of the 'music'. Let's hope for the sake of the ordinary Kurds that their 'leaders' finally learn their lesson – don't play . . . no matter what you are promised!

Next up will be securing Damascus. The forces outside Damascus and in the south pocket of the country (see map above) would be supplied from across the borders from Jordan and israel. I would expect their supply convoys and communication centres to be hit by Russian jets and then the weakened and disorganised jihadis herded towards their benefactors' borders. Jordan and israel are going to be faced with the same double bind that the Turks will face. There is no way the israelis are going to welcome these jihadi 'freedom fighters' onto 'their' land. But this will suit the Russians just fine as Putin has made it clear he wants these demons dead.

I put 'their' in quotes because the Golan, towards which the jihadis will be pushed, is in fact Syrian territory taken by israel in its unprovoked war on its neighbours in 1967. Any future deal between israel and Russia/Syria is going to include the Golan Heights. Any future deal between israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah is going to include the occupied Sheba Farms. No country in the ME is going to be more vulnerable without US military force and money than israel. Russia is going to want a settlement that is just, lasting and in accordance with international law. Russia has put a lot on the line by militarily intervening in the ME and will not want to be revisiting this issue all over again in a few years time.

By pushing Turkey and israel into participating in the mass killing of the jihadis, it will unmask these treacherous states in the eyes of the gullible who have been lied to. This should dry up the source of future patsies who think they will be fighting for Allah.

Who's next? Iraq. While the jihadis are being pushed up against (or over) their benefactors' borders, the Iraqis, with the help of Iranian forces, will be cutting off the ISIL supply lines into the east of Syria from Iraq. Of course, the US will be doing everything it can to disrupt the Iraqi action. It will be interesting to see how it plays out but one thing is for sure, Russia will have thought through the options open to the US and have already prepared effective counter measures. Perhaps they will simply repeat their Syrian strategy in Iraq and set up air defences and an air base there. The Russians wouldn't have started all this without a thorough plan.

The plan must have been thorough and convincing enough to the Iraqi leadership to get them on board with the Russian coalition. After all, the Iraqi's have US military forces stationed on their territory and they are a continuing "clear and present danger" to Iraqi people as a whole and the Iraqi leadership, in particular. They have a lot to lose but, of course, a lot to gain. So I'm guessing that the Russian plan is an exceedingly good one.

Regardless, there is abundant evidence already that the US is out of their league. Their incompetence diplomatically has been evident for some years now but the illusion of their technical/military competence has carried them through. That illusion is evaporating as of now. The emerging reality will leave the US with no allies of any consequence apart from Britain.

The European countries will subsequently want a rapprochement with Russia. Hopefully, though, Russia will want the Europeans to offer some restitution for the damage they have participated in by not standing up to the US before this. It would be just if Germany and France, in particular, were to pay for at least some of the reconstruction that is needed in Syria and Iraq out of generosity as a gift and not as a business investment and to help in other ways such as paying for the repatriation and resettlement of refugees.

The European religious and aristocratic forces will want to make common cause with Russia and against the nihilist bankers in their midst (some background info here) who have led this march into the current economic and social mess. I can imagine Russia offering a 'partnership' which will include access to the Eurasian Economic Community and all the advantages of participating in this rapidly expanding economy together with a reordering of the European Union which would return sovereignty to its members and remove the bankers from their position of power.

If this comes to pass, it will be a huge improvement for most people compared to the present situation. But, whatever, in the next week or two we are going to see more tectonic shifts in power and perception.


Update from South Front showing map of attacks-

View on YouTube

Also this South Front report from three days ago which is notable for its suggestion that Russia may base some of its air force in Iraq and the advantages of doing so-

View on YouTube

And an article from Sputnik via SOTT - Lebanese media: ISIL militants fleeing Russian airstrikes in Syria

I like the SOTT editor's comment -
"Three days, that's THREE DAYS of Russian airstrikes and already we are seeing US-sponsored jihadi nutjobs being pushed back and out of Syria. 18 months of "Western airstrikes" resulted in exactly the opposite, the expansion of ISIL.
So, dear readers, what is your conclusion?


the latest update on Syria from South Front

View on YouTube

This is South Front's YouTube page and might be useful to watch for further updates.

Some further reading that might be useful-

Russian air strikes create panic among terrorists in Syria - General Staff

And a ton of further info and links from SOTT
Kurdish allies of US welcome Russian airstrikes in Syria

What If Russia Is Asked to Fly Air Cover for Iraqi Forces?
First appeared:
by Phil Butler

Russia says would consider any Iraqi request for airstrikes against Islamic State

Air Duel between the Sukhoi Su – 30 Russian SM and Israeli F-15


Excellent article! You and

Excellent article! You and Penny are doing great job; making this all very clear. Thanks

I'm glad it makes sense,

I'm glad it makes sense, Rachel, and thank you.

Penny has been 'spot on the money' regarding Syria from when it first started more than four years ago and has been at it day in, day out ever since.

I agree with Rachel

and I hope your predictions come true.

I am hoping for some other things too, but your list would make for a good start! Wink

I hope so, too, WP!If the

I hope so, too, WP!
If the predictions do come to fruition, it won't be all sunshine and happiness, I'm afraid. It never is, as I'm sure you are all too aware of.

But I'll see how the 'good news' starts working out before shooting my mouth off regarding the 'bad news'.

This prophesying stuff is tricky business smiling

McJ's picture

Great analysis James. And it

Great analysis James. And it looks like you are pretty darn good at that prophesying stuff as well. Mr. Green

We are seeking bigger role for Russia than Americans' - Iraq defense committee chairman

"Baghdad, Russia’s ally in its fight against ISIS, wants Russia to have a bigger role in the anti-terrorist campaign in Iraq than the US and may soon officially request to start airstrikes on its soil, the chairman of Iraqi parliament’s defense committee said.
"We might be forced to ask Russia to launch airstrikes in Iraq soon. I think in the upcoming few days or weeks Iraq will be forced to ask Russia to launch airstrikes and that depends on their success in Syria," said Hakim al-Zamili, Reuters reported.
"We are seeking to see Russia having a bigger role in Iraq... Yes, definitely a bigger role than the Americans," Zamili said."

Thousands of Syrian rebels flee positions under Russian airstrikes
"DAMASCUS, Oct. 6 (Xinhua) — Thousands of rebels are fleeing their positions toward Turkey and Jordan, as a result of the Russian and Syrian airstrikes, the state-run TV reported Tuesday.
The rebels have suffered “great losses,” which led to a “collapse in their morale,” as thousands of them fled toward Turkey and Jordan and part of them fled toward Europe, the TV said.

The report collaborated with what a senior military officer told Xinhua on Sunday that “the Russian airstrikes have a tangible efficiency.”
“There are information that affirms that there have been direct results to these strikes which were clear with the escape of members of the terrorist groups and there were even division and dispute among the rebels, which came against the backdrop of these strikes.”
He said the militants have not only fled their positions to Turkey, but many IS members have fled from al-Raqqa province, which is the de facto capital of the IS, toward the Iraqi territories."

And you just have to like this: BREAKING: Russia launches 26 missiles against ISIS from 4 warships ... in the Caspian Sea

Another one of those surprise chess moves? excellent! Wouldn't you have liked to have been a fly on the wall when this news hit the Warhawks?

SOTT comment: "Comment: No one saw that one coming!

Undoubtedly expecting this next stage in Russia strikes on ISIL, the US, Turks, Israelis etc. have had 'all eyes' on the Russian ships off the coast of Syria, expecting cruise missiles to come from there. They may even have intended to shoot them down before they reached Syrian airspace. But after 14 years of watching the US and how it operates in the 'war on terror', the Russians appear to be in a position to surprise the Pentagon's erstwhile 'terror fighters' every time. While their radars were scanning the skies West of Syria, the missiles came from the East. "

Thanks McJ

I will take credit for finishing my article with, "But, whatever, in the next week or two we are going to see more tectonic shifts in power and perception." And there's more to come.

Another one of those surprise chess moves? excellent! Wouldn't you have liked to have been a fly on the wall when this news hit the Warhawks?

I sure would. WTF!!! hahaha smiling

From your second link,
"The strikes have raised the ire of the Syrian rebels, as several rebel groups called on regional countries to form an alliance against the Russian-led coalition pummeling them, according to a statement released Monday."

Sorry guys, you are being hung out to dry and, frankly, it couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of bastards. If you are going to swim with the sharks, it is wise to make sure you're the biggest shark in the pool. Otherwise . . . . .

Here's a link to an article well worth reading-

The implications are tectonic, too. The missiles were a signal to the US and Turkey. I'll comment more later. Maybe an update is warranted because we are going to see Russia bombing ISIL in Iraq within days. Well, that's my opinion anyway smiling

Here's a copy of a comment I

Here's a copy of a comment I left at Penny's last night (my time) which has the gist of it-

Imagine how surprised the US administration were/are! And I'd be surprised if the surprises don't keep coming.
Imagine how the US military commanders stationed in Iraq are thinking when they contemplate the fact that Russian missiles have been whizzing overhead.
Iraq is also giving the finger the the Americans. They must be confident that Russia has their back, totally

McJ's picture

US pulls aircraft carrier out of Persian Gulf

US pulls aircraft carrier out of Persian Gulf as Russian ships enter

"The United States has pulled the USS Theodore Roosevelt – a massive, nuclear-powered aircraft carrier – out of the Persian Gulf as Russian warships have entered the area.    
For the first time since 2007, the US Navy has now no aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf, according to NBC News.
The warship was withdrawn from the Persian Gulf on Thursday, a day after Russia fired 26 long-range cruise missiles from its Caspian Flotilla against terrorists in Syria, Pentagon officials said. 
US military officials claimed that the aircraft carrier, which houses about 5,000 sailors and 65 fighter jets, was withdrawn because it needed to undergo maintenance."

McJ's picture

Ya right :D

Ya right, their "unreliable ability" is the problem. Just the opposite is more likely. laughing out loud
One of the reasons “impacting this decision is ...the unreliable ability of those Russian missiles,” said Michael Burns in an interview with Press TV on Saturday.

"I don’t think those are battle tested and US policy makers are afraid. God forbids one of those things land near our carrier or near one of our fleet elements,” he added."

PressTV-‘Russian missiles scared US out of PG’

Thanks for the links and

Thanks for the links and quotes, McJ. The US Fleet were always sitting ducks in the constricted Persian Gulf so America was never going to attack Iran while ever its fleet was there seconds away from Iranian Sunburn missiles against which the US Navy has no defence.

The Russian Klub missiles fired from the Caspian Sea that took out the ISIS targets with pin-point accuracy were a message to both the US and Turkey. Interesting that the US Navy should now find it prudent to remove themselves from the Persian Gulf (which is clearly within range of the same missiles from the same ships in the Caspian Sea. Perhaps the US are planning a provocation of Russia?

I wonder what the local 'princelings' and sheiks are thinking as they watch the transoms of the US Navy disappear over the horizon? Perhaps they should be renamed 'shakes'?

The wayward missiles story

I think we can see that the 'Russian missiles aimed at Syria falling in Iran' story
was a set up for the excuse used to remove the U.S. Aircraft carrier.

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