UKRAINE – What Just Happened? (Updated)

(Update at the foot of the article)
This last week has seen a dramatic turnaround in the fortunes of the Novorossian Armed Forces (NAF); from barely holding on, to turning the tables on the forces of the Kiev junta regime. The NAF has from the beginning imposed heavy losses on the Kiev forces, often in the order of 10 to 1, but they were unable to hold many strategic areas as they were greatly outnumbered and did not have the heavy equipment needed to sustain heavy attacks. So what happened?

It wasn't luck or happen-stance that led to this turnaround. It was planned from the beginning. Well, almost the beginning. After the Crimean vote for independence and then decision to join the Russian Federation, the oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv also proposed referendums. Russian President, Vladimir Putin, advised these oblasts to postpone their referendums. Kharkiv agreed but Dontesk and Luhansk proceded with their referendums calling on increased independence from Kiev. The votes were over 90% in favour of independence in the form of a federation, at least, if not more.

Kiev then decided that the smartest thing to do was to wage war on the citizens of the eastern oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk to win their hearts and minds back to their illegally imposed masters in Kiev. This piece of genius from the Kiev fascists sparked an armed defence from the citizens against the shelling of their towns and cities.

A retired Russian colonel, Igor Strelkov, appeared amongst the eastern Ukrainians (henceforth called Novorossians) and organised them into a citizens militia and led them brilliantly against the fascist Kiev junta forces.

It became quickly obvious that the militia were very effective by inflicting a disproportionate number of casualties on the junta forces and capturing arms, ammunition and heavy equipment including some tanks. The militia were organised into what is known as Saboteur-Reconnaissance Groups (SRG's). These are lightly armed and very mobile. They survive by not remaining in one place long enough to attract enemy artillery.

But how were they so effective against a trained army that far outnumbered them? In battle reports, a criticism kept recurring. The junta battle formations would advance without protecting their flanks and would find themselves surrounded by the NAF and in the middle of what became 'killing fields'. But how could SRG's do this? Well, the SRG's acted together in formations and these formations went undetected (it seems) by the junta forces till it was too late.

There was a very simple tactic that the Mongols used very effectively against the Medieval Europeans time and time again and it appears to me that the NAF employed the same simple tactic with the same devastating results. The Mongols would send a group of warriors against a walled town or city and attack the gates. The local lord's forces, who were forewarned of the Mongols' advance, had barricaded themselves inside their siege proof walls. The local forces would rain down arrows, spears and anything they could find onto the Mongols below.

After a short while the Mongols would turn-tail and would scamper off and over the nearest hill. The local lord seeing this would order the drawbridge lowered and would set off with his troops in pursuit of the Mongols confident he had them beat. All went well until they rode over the hill where the Mongols had prepared a three sided trap with a much larger force. The forth side was closed behind the arrogant and stupid lord's forces and a massacre ensued after which the Mongols rode into the city and took uncontested possession of it.

I think this is exactly what the NAF have done with the junta forces. The NAF would engage the junta army with a SRG and then retreat causing the Kiev knuckleheads to follow in hot pursuit stretching their supply lines, leaving their flanks unprotected and into the killing field set for them. They did this time and again. These traps became known as "cauldrons". All this was done with very few men.

It was often remarked that the NAF forces were made up of middle aged men. “Where were the young men who should be along side them fighting for their land and families?” They were in Russia. Many families which included young men were evacuated to the Rostov area of Russia where, once their young families were safe, they were trained by the Russian armed forces to return to Novorossia when the time came.

It was all part of an overall strategy that proved costly but devastatingly effective during WW11. While Russian forces with little equipment and ammunition held on for interminable months of siege in major Russian cities such as Leningrad and Stalingrad, the Soviet government was training and equipping divisions of troops in the east. When the siege defenders were almost done (and hence maximum damage and exhaustion extracted from the Germans) the fresh divisions stormed westward and overran the German army.

The same strategy was employed in this Ukrainian civil war but in a much more limited and condensed way. When the time came to go from the SRG/Mongol tactic to the WW11 offensive strategy, Strelkov was relieved of command to make way for a whole new command group that had been trained along with the newly trained Novorossian volunteers. Alexander Zakharchenko and Vladimir Kononov took over and announced the arrival of 1200 trained volunteers to the ranks (I think it is safe to say that there are many more than 1200 and that there are even more on the way). These volunteers were trained in operating tanks and artillery. The offensive was about to begin.

The junta forces have all been drawn to the east of Ukraine and have been decimated. By the time the offensive is complete, there will likely be no Ukrainian Army or other "punitive" forces in effective existence. This will leave the way open for the Novorossians, like the Mongols before them, to stroll into Kiev without resistance.

The US had finally twigged to what was about to go down and started scrambling to save at least some territory in Ukraine. All sorts of people started to say that federalisation of Ukraine wasn't such a bad idea, after all, including Angela Merkel most recently. One of the first voices was John Mearsheimer who was published in the CFR journal Foreign Affairs saying that federalisation was a jolly fine and reasonable idea. Many pundits debated what and why Mearsheimer was saying what he was and what did it mean? No one, it seems, was struck by the fact that his call for federalisation was published in (and thereby supported by) the CFR's official journal. Never mind why the CFR would be calling for a federalisation turnaround?

The usual suspects (led by the bankers) were trying to salvage some territory from the coming debacle. They were also trying to soften up their CFR audience (which they had been hyping for a complete fascist victory in Ukraine) for a relatively soft landing and hence trying to save some face. Image is everything, of course, when you are a liar and trying to maintain power. So a lot of people smelt blood in the water (including me!).

A hasty meeting in Minsk was organised with Russia in the hope of prevailing upon Putin to intervene on their behalf with the Novorossians. It was never going to happen and merely highlighted the lunacy and delusion of the psychopathic thinking of these bankers and oligarchs.

By the time the Minsk meeting was held, the rout had begun in the field. The question now is how is this going to end? Not well at all for the bankers and their porky friends, if you ask me. They have been attacking Russia with every avenue of propaganda they can think of so as to effect a split between Russia and Europe or at least justify it. This has failed to a large degree because the western public have not bought it whole and their political leaders are acting ambivalently because they are aware of the public's dissatisfaction with the lies and also with the business community's dissatisfaction with the sanctions and their aftermath.

But we've seen before that the bankers, being psychopaths, will continue to move forward with a losing strategy. We can expect them (through the govts of the US and the UK) to pressure the European govts to increase the economic sanctions, sever Russia from the SWIFT bank payments system and to even push the major European countries (Germany, France particularly) into installing troops in Ukraine in the hope of, at a minimum, of saving some ground or even entangling them in a hot war with Russia. Hence the NATO meeting scheduled in a week's time in Wales and the appeals for help to NATO from Porky and Yats. They would not be calling for NATO help unless instructed to by the bankers.

I doubt very much if this push from the bankers will be successful, though. It is far more likely to have the opposite effect with Germany and France (their govts, that is) openly rejecting these moves and finally saying “No” to the London and New York bankers. It would be just too crazy and will increase the pressure within these two leading countries of Europe to go with Russia, after all.

It may mean political changes within those governments, though. Besides, it is clear that the bankers are going down with Russia now selling oil for Rubles and not $US. Gazprom Neft (a subsidiary) announced some time back that they had gained agreement from most of its customers to use Euros or Yuan or Rubles for oil sales. The UK government is now calling for Russia to be excluded from the banks settlement organisation, SWIFT, but this will backfire and the UK and US governments along with their banker masters will only succeed in isolating themselves in the end.

It is in Russia's (and the world's) interests to have a Ukraine free from a fascist government and free from NATO influence and certainly free from NATO bases. Russia's defensive posture throughout and its humane approach to Kiev forces will help it achieve this in the end. The increasingly inhumane actions of the Kiev junta and their backers will further alienate their citizens in the west and will also help Russia (and Ukraine) achieve this end. Ukraine is on the edge of complete social and economic collapse and Russia is the only country that is both capable and willing to put Ukraine as a whole back on its feet.

At a minimum, Novorossia (including Kharkiv and Odessa and Transdneister) is a done deal. There may be a larger federated Ukraine but it will be more a case of the other western and central oblasts joining in a federation of Novorossia on Novorossian terms. My guess is that those oblasts that do not join Novorossia will be offered financial and technical help from Russia but on the precondition that they have no arrangements with NATO. The Europeans are not in a position to help anyone and if indeed they did, they would face a revolt at home as they are imposing austerity measures (because they have no money, they say) on their own populations.

The interim Novorossian government has said that oligarchs are a thing of the past. Their stolen property and businesses will be taken over by the state. I think we can look forward to a form of state capitalism with govt owned and run central bank, infrastructure, resource extraction and processing and armaments industries with free enterprise encouraged to provide consumer products and services. What will happen to the IMF loans, I'm not sure. But I cannot imagine them being rewarded for their treachery by any popularly elected government.

As stated, Russia regards NATO bases in Ukraine as anathema and they are non negotiable as far as Russia is concerned. Looking forward into the future, Russia wants a co-operative economic community “from Lisbon to Vladivostok”. This, of course, shuts out Russia's perennial enemy, the London/New York bankers who have financed the Ukrainian oligarchs, the Russian oligarchs and way back to the Bolsheviks that overthrew the Czarist government and introduced a reign of terror to both Russia and Ukraine and killing millions in the process. This is who Russia is really after and they will want to use Ukraine as a bridge between Western and Eastern Europe provided it can shut out the bankers and sideline the fascists (who are financed by the bankers, in any case). Russia will bend over backwards to achieve that aim and will be prepared to offer all sorts of inducements to all parts of Ukraine to gain it.

Some links to further reading-

For anyone who has been generally impressed with John Mearsheimer on his appearances on Peter Lavelle's Crosstalk, you would do well to listen carefully to this radio interview with him. His publication in Foreign Policy will be better understood-

Check out the body language-
and a transcript-


Here are some survivors of a massacre and the family of some non-survivors paying out on an Ukrainian Army Colonel. What is interesting to me is that the major part of the complaints is against the incompetence and the heartlessness displayed towards them and their children/soldiers by the regime. No where was there any complaints about the evil of shelling the east Ukrainians who just wanted to be left alone to run their own lives. (H/T to Dublinmick for providing the link to this revealing video.)


Thank you, James

This is a great read. It explains a lot of things that might not have been apparent otherwise. Thanks very much, as always.

On a side note, I am pleased to say I have not lost ANY respect for John Mearsheimer. Wink

You're very welcome, WP. I'm

You're very welcome, WP. I'm glad you found it valuable. Are you being a little cryptic regarding Mr. Mearsheimer?

cryptic? me?

let's just say I could not make a withdrawal from an empty account.

Like I said!


Understanding the Astounding

Understanding the Astounding Novorossiyan Victories
Posted on August 30, 2014 by Joaquin Flores

Thank you, anon

For the link to the Joaquin Flores article. I finally had time to read it with the full attention it deserves. It is quite detailed and has that academic 'denseness' which always takes me a while to decipher.

I agree that Putin and Russia has always been in the box seat and Flores makes a good point about both sides in Ukraine have had an interest in portraying the Kiev junta forces as being dominant so that is the way it has been presented. But because Kiev's reasoning was more for propaganda purposes and the NAF's reasoning was for strategic purposes, the NAF profited more from the deal - one having more to do with reality than the other.

While I'm sure the Russians have had no illusions about the nature of the psychopaths in charge in Kiev (and the US) and have used that to their advantage, I don't think the Russians have been as coldly calculating as Flores implies. Though they have not expected Kiev to sue for peace or even genuinely enter into peace negotiations, I'm sure if there was a sincere offer to negotiate from Kiev, the Russians would have leapt at it at any time and still will. So they are not playing games.

Thanks again for leaving the link. A lot of food for thought.

Really good piece. There is a

Really good piece. There is a long way to go to arrive at your projections, and much could happen, but they are fundamentally sound.


Thanks for your comment, Malooga. There is indeed a long way to go but I am amazed at how fast the geo-political balance is shifting.

Some things I bear in mind are that the western bankers are in a deteriorating position and the more they thrash around, the quicker they are bringing about they downfall-

Russia does not want NATO bases on Any Ukrainian soil.

Russia must act in accordance with the "Multi-Polar World" vision that it announced to the world at the security conference in Germany in 2007. It must be consistent with this to win over the world's nations from the bankers' tools in the US and the UK. So their actions will remain defensive while taking full advantage of the offensive energy and thinking of the bankers and their NATO tools.

And lastly, Russia (Putin) has a plan and has been working on it consistently since 2000. The tactics will change as necessity arises but the strategy of bringing down the bankers has been and will remain unchanging while ever the bankers keep throwing everything and everybody against Russia.

Hi James, Great article! I

Hi James,

Great article! I hope you don't mind us having translated and re-posted it on our site:


Hi Marina

I don't mind in the least! I am flattered and honoured.

three cheers!

I love it!

(No subject)


McJ's picture

I second that! Way to go

I second that! Way to go James. smiling

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