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Iran Has A Plan for Nagorno Karbakh: M.K. Bhadrakumar.

pennyforyourthoughts2 - Mon, 11/09/2020 - 17:54
 Yesterday’s report, 3rd update: Nagarno Karabakh: Azerbaijan Retrieves Shusha. Armenia must negotiate. Possible Turkish/Russian Peacekeepers, ended on this note regarding Iran’s role in settling Nagarno Karabakh

“Additionally I'd like to see Iran have a role in peacekeeping. And, think they probably will.”If you’ve been following along here, you would  already be aware that Iran had a peace plan. A regional solution they’d put together (If you read anywhere else, you were probably completely unaware) Bhadrakumar has been the lone analyst I’ve come across mentioning the idea and necessity of a regional solution. I’m in agreement with that idea, myself.

Reported here October 27/20: Iran Prepares Plan For Sustainable Solution to Nagorno Karabakh Conflict- Putin, Erdogan and Their Foreign Minsisters Talk    
Iran has prepared a proposal for a permanent solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Iranian top diplomat said Tuesday.

Foreign Minister Javad Zarif told state television that his deputy, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, will visit Baku and Yerevan in coming days to present the plan to Azerbaijani and Armenian authorities.

Armenia must respect the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, according to Zarif, who said the conflict must be resolved through peaceful diplomatic means.

Araghchi is scheduled to visit Baku, Moscow, Yerevan and Ankara to promote the Iranian initiative, said Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh, according to Iranian official news agency IRNA.
M.K. Bhadrakumar published his report almost a week after the above post. 

However, Mr B has expanded on the news. And shared his thoughts. In light of what has recently been taking place in Nagorno Karabakh it’s well worth reading          

Armenian shelling of Ganja,Azerbaijan near the Iranian border. 

This bombing of civilians, far from the battlefield was discussed in the report - Nagarno Kharabak Updates: Shushi/Shusha, Tank Losses/Electronic Warfare, Overthrowing Pashinian? Part 1

Over 2,480 houses, 97 multi-apartment residential buildings, and 461 civilian infrastructure facilities have been damaged or completely destroyed in the wake of Armenian army's attacks on densely populated civilian areas in the cities and districts of Azerbaijan, including Ganja, Barda, Tartar, Agjabadi, Goranboy, Mingachevir, Kurdamir, Gabala, Aghdam, and Fuzuli.
M. K. Bhadrakumar continues..
Keep in mind this is a fluid situation So some of what Bhrarakumar has to say is slightly dated. I'm focusing on the Iranian plan.
Iran has unveiled a regional initiative to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi returned to Tehran in the weekend after a regional tour to Azerbaijan, Russia, Armenia and Turkey to discuss the peace plan. Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has since explained Tehran’s thinking.

A report in the Tehran Times on Sunday quoted Zarif as saying, “One of the important points of our country’s initiative is that it is not only seeking a temporary ceasefire but also a move towards resolving the conflicts based on a framework that begins with the declaration of commitment of both sides to a set of principles and then it continues with measures, especially the withdrawal of the occupying forces from all the occupied territories.”

There are some interesting elements here. First, Iran does not give credibility to the so-called Minsk Group, which has been claiming the lead role of peacemaking in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict for the past three decades.

The Minsk Group was a progeny of the “unipolar” world order following the collapse of the former Soviet Union. Since its creation in 1992 by the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe [OSCE], the regional and international situation has transformed beyond recognition.

The OSCE has been increasingly acting as the West’s tool to embarrass Russia. The OSCE played a dubious role in the investigations into the alleged use of chemical weapons in the Syrian conflict. The chances Minsk Group’s “co-chairs” — the US, France and Russia — reaching a consensus on any issue are zero in the prevailing international situation.

Suffice to say, Tehran’s misgivings are well-founded. At any rate, Iran’s preference all along has been for a regional initiative and a regional solution, which is of course a principle Iran has consistently upheld over the years. As Zarif put it, “Iran believes that the countries in the region will bear the brunt of this war, and these countries can have the greatest impact on ending the war.”

Second, Iran is spot on in its assessment that a ceasefire can only be a temporary patch-up and the core issue must be addressed, namely, the vacation of territories that are under Armenian occupation, defying the UN resolutions, and Yerevan’s seizure of even more Azeri territories.

Face the reality msm and so called alt media. These are Azeri territories and they have been unlawfully occupied and ethnically cleansed- By Armenia

The Iranian proposal recognises the need for a parallel effort to reach a framework to get the opposing sides to agree to commit themselves on a “set of principles” that gives primacy to “withdrawal of the occupying forces from all the occupied territories.”

To be sure, Nagorno-Karabakh should have some form of special status that safeguards “people’s rights” and communication links; also, a mechanism of regional states to monitor the implementation of such a peace package is essential.

Tehran shares Moscow’s concern regarding the presence of terrorist elements in the region. Zarif warned that Iran will not “tolerate” such a situation. As he put, the terrorist elements have not yet appeared on the Azeri border regions, “but the probability that they will be present at a distance from Iran’s borders is still high.”

What are the prospects for the Iranian plan? Iran’s initiative is driven by strong security considerations. The last thing Iran wants is a spillover of the conflict. Iran enjoys friendly relations with Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, and has economic cooperation with them, especially in energy, that could get disrupted if the conflict continues. Besides, Transcaucasia borders the Caspian, which is a highly strategic region for Iran. And Iran is deeply apprehensive that extra-regional powers hostile to it are waiting in the wings to exploit the instability.

Iran-Russia relations are close and friendly, and Tehran is keen that the two countries remain on the same page on the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. But Iran’s relationship with Turkey has also acquired a new dimension in the post-Abraham Accord situation in the Middle East.  

Clearly, if anyone can persuade Armenia to see the light of reason, it is only Moscow. But for that to happen, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan should be made to realise that he cannot hope to play games any longer. Quite obviously, he is getting encouragement from the US. There is no question that Armenia should vacate the occupation of Azeri territory.

Obviously Pashinian is getting encouragement from the US. I've had no doubt about that

Iran is a natural ally for Russia over Nagorno-Karabakh, On the contrary, Turkey is behaving like a revisionist power. (?)The US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo hit the nail on the head when he roundly condemned Turkey’s involvement in the conflict. (Disagree- Turkey has valid reasons and concerns- This is where I disagree with M.K. and Pompeo  and find it odd after he has just acknowledged US "encouragement" in Pashinian and Armenia's duplicitous behaviour “We now have the Turks, who have stepped in and provided resources to Azerbaijan, increasing the risk, increasing the firepower that’s taking place in this historic fight. The resolution of that conflict ought to be done through negotiation and peaceful discussions, not through armed conflict, and certainly not with third party countries coming in to lend their firepower to what is already a powder keg of a situation,” Pompeo said on October 16.  Pompeo is speaking with a forked tongue, Bhadrakumar is surely aware of that!  Pompeo is fully aware of the friendly relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey. Pompeo is fully aware that Armenia has been unwilling to negotiate any type of settlement.  And Pompeo is a participant, no doubt, in the US encouragement of Pashinian. For Pompeo to make statements like that is dishonest. To say the least.
Indeed, Washington’s problem with Turkey is not limited to Nagorno-Karabakh. Nonetheless, any  attempt by Turkey to destabilise the Caucasus must be firmly countered.

The preferred way to do it will be by addressing the longstanding Azeri grievance. Here, again, Moscow has good working relations with the leadership in Baku. Moscow also has ways and means to draw “red lines” for Turkey.However, a disconcerting tendency lately is that Moscow tends to let things drift and takes a detached view of things even when the neighbour’s roof is on fire. ( Disagree with that contention also)  On top of Ukraine and Belarus, Russia now faces the spectre of a pro-US leadership emerging in Moldova, neighbouring to Romania (which is a NATO member country.) Russia has been the main strategic partner of the incumbent Moldovan president Igor Dodon. But his pro-EU rival Maia Sandu who has cited the US as his strategic partner, secured a slender lead in the first round of election on Sunday.Decisive action is needed from Russia’s part. Russia gets a relatively free hand as of now to galvanise a peace process, given the elections in the US and the coronavirus pandemic in Europe. But this window of opportunity won’t last long.Too many extra-regional players are rolling up the sleeves to intervene and make Nagorno-Karabakh another geopolitical slugfest on Russia’s southern borders. Symptomatic of this is the reported remark by the US National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien that Turkey should play no role in a peacekeeping force in Nagorno-Karabakh and that he was working with Scandinavian governments to put together a potential peacekeeping mission. O’Brien didn’t consider it worthwhile to consult Moscow!Suffice to say, Iran’s initiative needs to be followed up urgently. The conflict in  Nagorno-Karabakh is now in its sixth week. Attacks continue on residential and civilian areas with missile strikes. The UN’s High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet said Monday that “reports that cluster munitions have been used by both parties” were “deeply troubling.” Bachelet warned that such attacks “may amount to war crimes.”

Deep dive material: 

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3rd update: Nagarno Karabakh: Azerbaijan Retrieves Shusha. Armenia must negotiate. Possible Turkish/Russian Peacekeepers

pennyforyourthoughts2 - Sun, 11/08/2020 - 09:27
 We ended Part 2 covering the reports that Azerbaijan has taken back Shusha. It is Shusha to them. Aliyev announced it to the populace. Baku erupted in cheers and flag waving.

 
Azerbaijani people celebrate after Shusha city liberated from Armenia's occupation, on 8 November 2020 in Baku, Azerbaijan. [Resul Rehimov - Anadolu Agency]

“If the Armenian leadership does not respond to our demands [withdrawal of occupying forces from the region], we will go till the end,” Aliyev said in his speech in the Alley of Martyrs in the capital Baku.

 If Shusha has been returned to Azerbiajan (and going by all reports this does look to be the case)  Armenia is left in a poor position to continue this fighting. They are at the disadvantage that Azerbaijan was when Armenia began it's occupation decades ago. In a way it's come full circle. It didn't have to be this way. Armenia could have negotiated time and time again to settle this issue without mass destruction and loss of life. Armenia's leadership choose not to. This has all been covered here previously. Go back and read those reports including Pashinian's snubbing of Lavrov.

 Pashinyan refused to follow a plan elaborated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to finally settle the Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh mess.

As was noted in the October 06 report:

NATO lackey Pashinyan refused to follow a peace plan elaborated by Sergey Lavrov? Russia will keep that in mind when dealing with Mr Globalist (a fact, again, that is just not mentioned or downplayed)

 If you've been paying attention you will have noticed that Russia was not standing beside Armenia. Russia has no obligation to stand by Armenia's occupation of Nagarno Karabakh

 Secondly, Pashinian is a creature of western NGO's and George Soros. He has not been an honest partner for Russia. Just the facts. And these facts explain the sitting on the sidelines we've witnessed Russia engaging in, in my opinion.

 Taking into consideration the probable return of Shusha and other territories to Azerbaijan. The fact that Russia, Iran and Turkey as well as Azerbaijan have all wanted a diplomatic settlement the news below will only come 'out of the blue' to those that have been inhaling too much Armenian disinfo. In fact, what is being reported on, was an idea that had been entertained here nearly two weeks ago:

Possible Outcomes?

1- Western Imperial Powers will Recognize “Artsakh” Talked about this here previously. This move will certainly set the region alight!

2- Turkey and Russia will send peace keepers in. The issue of territory will be settled once and for all. The same type of cooperation as we see in Syria. Iran may participate as well.

An Astana 2.0 if you like?

 November 08/20: EXCLUSIVE: Azerbaijan, Armenia 'near ceasefire deal' on Nagorno-Karabakh Draft deal forces Armenia to withdraw from some areas amid the deployment of a Turkish and Russian peacekeeping force, Turkish sources tell MEE

Azerbaijan and Armenia are close to striking a meaningful ceasefire deal over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and its surrounding regions which have been occupied by Armenia since 1992, Turkish sources have told Middle East Eye.

The deal will mandate Armenia to cede a large chunk of territory while placing a Turkish and Russian peacekeeping mission in the area.

On Sunday, Azerbaijan announced it had captured Shusha, Nagorno-Karabakh's second-largest city, a claim Armenia denied.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, reached an understanding on the components of a draft deal on Saturday in a phone call, the sources said.

You should recall this phone call was mentioned in Part 1 of this latest series?

The details were discussed by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, in a subsequent phone conversation.

Two corridors likely to be established

According to the draft deal, Armenia will immediately withdraw from five out of seven occupied raions (a type of administrative unit of several post-Soviet states) surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh, once both sides agree to the conditions of the truce.

Under the terms of the ceasefire, Yerevan will pull out from the remaining two raions in 15 days. The draft deal does not require Baku to leave its recently captured territories, but would put a halt to Azerbaijan's offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh, which is now partly controlled by Baku.

In a significant move, both sides will possibly agree to the establishment of two corridors.

One road leading from Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh would initially ensure Yerevan's access to the region. Armenia, in return, will allow the creation of a second corridor which would connect the Azerbaijan territory of Nakhcivan to Baku.

The Turkish and Russian peacekeeping forces would then be deployed to uphold the ceasefire.

"The Azerbaijani government doesn't want to rapidly seize [the city of] Khankendi [Stepanakert in Armenian] and cause civilian casualties," one of the Turkish sources said.

"This deal stops the possible humanitarian crisis while honouring the legitimate Azerbaijani demands on the territory."

 As I'd written weeks ago- This was a definite possibility. Let's hope Armenia's leadership finally accepts diplomacy and negotiated settlement. Their populace has paid a very high price for Pashinian's arrogance.

Additionally I'd like to see Iran have a role in peacekeeping. And, think they probably will. Also, it seems worth considering that Turkey and Russia may have had this ceasefire deal worked out prior to this week end.

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Nagarno Kharabak Updates: Shushi/Shusha, Tank Losses/Electronic Warfare, Overthrowing Pashinian? Part 2

pennyforyourthoughts2 - Sun, 11/08/2020 - 08:38

There is some interesting breaking news that I will have posted shortly, meanwhile, we'll pick up where we finished. We ended Part 1 entertaining the possibility that Pashinian will be pushed out

Keep in mind the FACT that Nagarno Karabakh is recognized to be Azeribaijani territory, ethnically cleansed by the Armenia’s approx 25 yrs ago. This Armenian action resulted in 200,000 to as high as 600,000 displaced Azerbaijani’s. Some of them went to Iran.  Some have resettled to other parts of Azerbaijan. A great many remain internally displaced to this day.

These realities were covered in the previous reports:

"The United Nations had approved no less than four resolutions – 822, 853, 874 and 884 – establishing that Armenia should withdraw from what was deemed to be roughly 20% of Azerbaijani territory."  

"Azerbaijan has made significant progress in recent years in caring for roughly 600,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) who were forcibly evicted from Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding districts by ethnic Armenian forces nearly two decades ago."         
  Arabnews
 Azerbaijan’s forces have continued to advance against Armenian soldiers. Azeri troops now find themselves on the edge of their greatest prize: The city of Shushi (Shusha) It is at this point that the war will reach its decisive moment of victory or defeat.
The war began on Sept. 27 with initial difficulties for Azerbaijan, which faced entrenched positions built up over more than two decades. After more than a week of heavy bombardment and dozens of precise drone strikes, Baku’s forces succeeded in breaking through the initial Armenian defensive line in southeast Karabakh. What followed was a combination of a fighting retreat and a disorderly rout for Armenian and Karabakhti troops, as Azeri ground forces took swathes of territory and well-stocked abandoned bases. By late October, they already controlled four of the seven occupied regions ( Omitted the quotation marks- these regions are occupied- Just as Golan is occupied) around Karabakh proper (the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast).
The driving force of this war has been Azerbaijan’s drones. While there is a wide range of unmanned aerial vehicles in Baku’s inventory — at least eight — it has been the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 that has been decisive. Others, such as the Israeli-made IAI Harop — a loitering munition, rather than a proper drone — have had an impact, but nowhere near the Bayraktar’s. Independent analysis shows the Bayraktar destroying nearly 100 Armenian tanks.

Warfare has certainly changed with the progression of technology- 

 A great many tanks were destroyed very early in the Azerbaijani moves to retake it’s territory.
I’d saved this article from a month ago, discussing the why of massive tank losses, that definitely worsened as technology progressed to the state is now.

From October 06/20:

Armenian soldier
The Key to Armenia’s Tank Losses: The Sensors, Not the Shooters

"Despite the heavy Armenian armoured losses, the key lessons from the videos Azerbaijan has published online are not about armour. Rather, they reflect how the density of sensors on the modern battlefield is changing the balance in combined arms warfare.

Amid a lively debate about the viability of the UK’s heavy armour, the loss of over 42 Armenian T-72s to Azerbaijani forces in Nagorno-Karabakh requires further analysis.


There is a tendency for Western soldiers to dismiss what can be learned from these incidents because the videos show limited tactical proficiency being displayed by Armenian troops. This is misguided for several reasons. The snippet videos usually show armour manoeuvring, when camouflage is hard to maintain, and which Western forces would equally have to do if they were to affect the outcome of battle. The videos have also been selected as examples of Azerbaijani successes. However, there is actually a lot of evidence of Armenian forces digging in, concealing positions, and deploying decoys, of which at least two were struck by Azerbaijani forces.

More importantly, this dismissal of evidence suggests a lack of appreciation of just how naked the modern battlefield has become. Against a peer adversary it is entirely reasonable to expect the battlefield to be swept by ground-moving target indicator (GMTI) radars, with tactical units able to scan terrain out to 150 km. Night or day, unusual cross-terrain movements, coordinated spacing, and lack of adherence to civilian roads, all make military vehicles highly distinct to trained operators.


A further layer of scrutiny will come from electronic warfare units...."Progress. Progressing. Progression of warfare.

Back to the Arab news report and Shusha “Azerbaijan’s St Petersburgh”
"After roughly a week of consolidation and reinforcement, while drones focused on entrenched Armenian artillery and infantry positions, Azeri forces began a major drive toward Shushi on Nov. 2. Known as Shusha in Azerbaijani, the fortress town that sits at the very heart of Karabakh has been the primary Azeri objective since the start of the war. Its resonance in Azeri society runs deep — the cultural and symbolic importance of the town has led to some describing it as “Azerbaijan’s St. Petersburg.” The slogan “To Shusha” is a common refrain in Azerbaijan, and President Ilham Aliyev himself has repeatedly stated that “without the liberation of Shusha, our victory is incomplete.”
           
Videos have emerged of fierce fighting. While Armenian forces inflicted casualties and destroyed vehicles, they were unable to stop the Azeris from reaching all the way to the village of Karintak (Dashalti in Azerbaijani) by Nov. 3. This village lies at the base of the cliff upon which Shushi is located. While there is no evidence indicating Azeri forces have established control over the town, the fact that they have reached this point is a grim omen for the Armenian defenders.

Nevertheless, Armenian drone footage showed artillery strikes on Azeri commandos on the Lachin highway itself, a mere 2 km from Shushi. However, those were advance forces — Azerbaijan’s presidential spokesman indeed later confirmed that Armenia still controlled the road. Crucially, the pattern of this war has been that where Baku’s special forces appear, a major Azeri force is not far behind.
Shushi/Shusha has been under near constant heavy bombardment. An Armenian attempt to dislodge Azeri forces from their recently captured forward positions failed, leaving the Azeris on the edge of the city. A video report from Russia’s ANNA News showed the shelling on the city, as well as the frontline positions just outside. One soldier said that the Azeris were “three or four kilometers away” — matching the picture painted by social media.
What does this all mean? Quite simply, the period around mid-November is going to decide the Karabakh war. If the Armenians can somehow push the Azeris back and hold their high-ground positions, they stand a chance of stabilizing and forcing this war into a stalemate. They have the high ground, and Shushi/Shusha constitutes a near-perfect natural fortress, surrounded by high cliffs on three sides.
If Azeri forces push up to Shushi/Shusha and seize it, they will have a commanding position over the remainder of Karabakh — not least of which, over Stepanakert, the capital that lies neatly below the mountain, just 10 km away. For the Armenians then to retake a position like Shushi/Shusha would be near-impossible, something the Azeris discovered the hard way after they lost it in the first war in 1992. There will still be hard street to street fighting ahead, but their gains will be all but cemented. One way or another, mid-November will mark a decisive moment in the war. There is news today that the Azerbaijan forces have taken Shushi/Shusha. Armenia has denied this. From what I'm reading it is most likely that Azerbaijani forces have seized the city.

Azerbaijan says it seized Nagorno-Karabakh’s 2nd-largest city

Azeri President Ilham Aliyev said on Sunday his country’s forces had taken Shusha/ Shushi the second-largest city in the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. Armenian officials immediately denied the claim.

“With great pride and joy, I inform you that the town of Shusha has been liberated,” Aliyev said in a televised address to the nation, as Armenian officials reported that “heavy fighting” for the city continues.

Aliyev said November 8 would “go down in the history of the Azerbaijani people” as the day “we returned to Shusha”.

In the capital Baku, Azeris gathered in large numbers to celebrate, waving flags and chanting slogans while drivers sounded their car horns.

Here's is the translated message delivered to Azerbaijan's people:


The head of state said:

“Giving this good news to the people of Azerbaijan on this historic day is perhaps one of the happiest days of my life.

Dear Shusha, you are liberated!

Dear Shusha, we are back!

Dear Shusha we will revive you!

Shusha is ours! Karabakh is ours! Karabakh is Azerbaijan!”

 

Part 3 is available as well: 

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Nagarno Kharabak Updates: Shushi/Shusha, Tank Losses/Electronic Warfare, Overthrowing Pashinian? Part 1

pennyforyourthoughts2 - Sat, 11/07/2020 - 18:19

  If you want simplistic black vs white themes? Go elsewhere. Nagarno Kharabak is complex.  As is real life So, we'll pick up where we finished in these two previous reports:

It’s been more then 12 years of slogging through the disinfo muck and mire here at PFYT's. (Started in March 08) Nagarno Karabakh, particularly as covered via the pro Armenian media has been spreading some of the muckiest mess one would ever have to wade through. On par with American/Israeli spin. Including the "terrorism" buzzword Armenia's been pushing. One would think that would be an easily recognized albeit tired and worn meme ?  Apparently, it's not. Oddly enough the "alt media" has failed to notice that big lie, yet again, in circulation. 

So much for alternative media! 

Part 1 of this latest begins below:
1- Putin, Erdogan ready to join efforts to solve Karabakh conflict

A negotiated settlement is definitely desired by all parties, except, it seems Armenia’s leader Pashinian
 Russian President Vladimir Putin informed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a phone call about phone talks with the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia aimed at looking for a solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the Kremlin said on Saturday.

According to the Kremlin press office, both presidents confirmed readiness to seek peace for Nagorno-Karabakh.

"[The two presidents] focused on the situation in the zone of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The Russian president informed his Turkish counterpart about a series of his telephone contacts with the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia. Those contacts sought options for the cessation of hostilities at the soonest possible time and for finding a political and diplomatic solution. Mutual readiness to cooperate so as to achieve a peaceful solution to the conflict was confirmed," the statement said.

On Saturday, the Turkish presidential office said that Erdogan insisted that Yerevan should be persuaded to sit at the negotiation table. He pointed out that a permanent solution to that conflict was a key factor for stability in the region, according to the press release.The Kremlin said earlier that on November 1 and 2 Putin held meaningful talks over the phone with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, discussing solutions to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with them.2- Armenia  has intentionally targeted civilians far from the front lines, with scud missiles that have resulted in widespread destruction and death that can only be characterized as attacks undertaken with the intention of spreading terror among the general population. The reality of what has occurred is unlike the spin. Armenia is far from the saintly victim state so often portrayed in the msm and alt media alike

Caspian News
Over 2,480 houses, 97 multi-apartment residential buildings, and 461 civilian infrastructure facilities have been damaged or completely destroyed in the wake of Armenian army's attacks on densely populated civilian areas in the cities and districts of Azerbaijan, including Ganja, Barda, Tartar, Agjabadi, Goranboy, Mingachevir, Kurdamir, Gabala, Aghdam, and Fuzuli.

The deadliest attack carried out by Armenia's forces took place in two consecutive missile fires on the Barda city of Azerbaijan on October 27 and 28. As a result of the attack, 27 civilians died and 107 wounded in the city that is home to 40,000 people and located at least 30 kilometers far from the battlefield in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is the internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan but occupied by Armenia.

    "Armenian forces either fired or supplied internationally banned cluster munitions and at least one other type of long-range rocket used in an attack on Barda city, 230 kilometers west of Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku on October 28, 2020," Human Rights Watch (HRW) said on October 30.
    
HRW analyzed the photos of cluster munition remnants found at and near the attack scene to conclude that the missile was a Smerch cluster munition rocket and a Smerch parachute-retarded high-explosive fragmentation rocket. A mix of large explosions and “pops” of smaller explosions that were heard following the attack was consistent with the detonations of the 9N235 submunitions, according to HRW. The 9N235 is a high explosive fragmentation submunition compatible with the Russia-made RSZO 9K58 "Smerch" multiple rocket launcher.

Prior to the attacks on Barda, Armenia's forces launched four separate rocket fire on Ganja, the second-largest city of Azerbaijan situated as far as 60 kilometers from the frontline, which has a population of over 500,000.  Targeting civilian centers, 30 and 60 kms away from the battle field demonstrates an intent to terrorize. There are reports that Azerbaijan has also used cluster munitions. Despicable.

3- Will the Armenian’s toss this Pashinian to the curb?  I’d guess anything is possible?
Yes, it’s wild speculation, but.. it’s a valid question. Do the Armenian’s really need a neo liberal colour revolution man servant of the elites in charge? Do we need Trudeau?  Ooops, I mean Chyrstia Freeland! Same/same except for the man servant part. Or not? ;)


 "The military actions in Nagorno-Karabakh show that the actions of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan from the very beginning of the conflict were rash and were committed for the sake of glory, Trend reports via the article published on yugsn.ru.  The article said Pashinyan's strategy led to colossal losses of personnel and volunteers, equipment, as well as the failure of the actions of the Armenian Armed Forces along the entire front, including intelligence.

"Pashinyan does not agree to a truce. He is looking for a meeting with Russian Presidents Vladimir Putin and asks for help, referring to some allied commitments within the CSTO. But the prime minister forgets that Russia can help Armenia only if its territory is attacked, which is not happening today," said the article.

Experts note that Pashinyan is trying to drag Moscow into a military conflict with Ankara. Also, Pashinyan does not notice the internal problems that contribute to failures at the front.

Also, the Armenian prime minister is criticized by representatives of the elite and businessmen, who note that with the coming to power of a pro-Western politician, their ties with Russia and the CIS countries have become not so strong, the previously reached agreements are lost. This, according to experts, also affects the internal situation, in the unwillingness to support Nikol Pashinyan's policy by many respected people.

Meanwhile, an expert on international conflicts Yevgeny Mikhailov notes that if a coup is brewing in Armenia, then Prime Minister Pashinyan has nowhere to run, the Armenian people will get him everywhere."

Parts 2 and 3 below:
 
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KLA Leaders aka Kosovo's Leadership including Hassim Thaci Charged With War Crimes- Headed to the Hague

pennyforyourthoughts2 - Thu, 11/05/2020 - 17:57
 Yah, so this is interesting. Considering the NK situation. The recent recognition of Kosovo by Israel. 

 Considering the fact that the KLA was backed by the US of A. And a democratic President.

 Bill Clinton is his name.

Who here recalls images of Marie Colvin embedded with the KLA terrorists? I do. I do! In fact they were embedded here at the blog. Here's a link to some sanitized images.

Any one of you remember Madeline Albright and Hashim Thaci ?

Madeline and Hassim- Two mass murderers together


In case you think I jest? I'd say more then 500, 000 dead children is mass murder. Can you call it anything else really?
And then there was Richard Holbrooke.....nearly 10 years ago

Richard Holbrooke, KLA terrorists, Kosovo recognition

Hashim Thaci, who was part and parcel of the KLA, installed as Prime Minister of Kosovo.
Kosovo declared independence and is immediately recognized, of course by the US, in the same way as Israel was..

And then there was the organ trafficking.. 


Let's bring it up to date:

KLA Leaders Charged With War Crimes- But Bill Clinton Still Walks Free?

“The indictment, as confirmed, states that the war crimes of illegal or arbitrary arrest and detention, cruel treatment, torture, and murder, and the crimes against humanity of imprisonment, other inhumane acts, torture, murder, enforced disappearance of persons, and persecution were committed from at least March 1998 through September 1999,” the statement issued on Thursday evening by KSC says.

It states that the crimes took place in several locations in Kosovo, and in Kukes and Cahan in Northern Albania. They  were allegedly committed by KLA members against hundreds of civilians and persons not taking part in hostilities.

The indictment says that among the victims were also Albanians supporting the Democratic League of Kosovo and “other parties perceived as anti-KLA”.

“The victims included persons suspected of being opposed to the KLA and later the Provisional Government of Kosovo, namely: (i) the Serbian, Roma and Ashkali populations; (ii) Catholics; (iii) civilians allegedly collaborating with Serb authorities or allegedly interacting with Serbs; (iv) Albanians affiliated to or supporting the Democratic League of Kosovo or other parties perceived as anti-KLA; (v) Albanians who did not join or support the KLA; and (vi) individuals with current or former employment perceived as anti-KLA,” reads the statement.

Thaçi, Veseli, Selimi and Krasniqi are individually criminally responsible, under various forms of responsibility, for the crimes, according to the indictment. It claims that the accused committed the crimes in the context of a non-international armed conflict in Kosovo, and were part of a widespread and systematic attack against persons suspected of being opposed to the KLA.

The former KLA leaders were arrested on Wednesday and Thursday, and were transferred to the detention facilities in The Hague.

Jakup Krasniqi was arrested on Wednesday after his house was raided for about nine hours.

Hashim Thaci, Kadri Veseli and Rexhep Selimi went voluntarily to the European Rule of Law Mission in Kosovo, EULEX’s facilities on Thursday, after being notified that the indictment against them was confirmed.

The Kosovo war crimes court, composed of the Specialist Chambers and the Specialist Prosecutor’s Office in The Hague, was established by the Kosovo parliament at the insistence of the international community in August 2015.

It followed a 2011 Council of Europe report in which Swiss Senator Dick Marty addresses the alleged crimes of “members of the Kosovo Liberation Army against ethnic minorities and political rivals” from January 1998 until December 2000.

Hassim Thaci resigned as President of Kosovo 

Hashim Thaci has resigned today from his post as president of Kosovo after the Hague-based war crimes court confirmed an indictment against him. Also, Kadri Veseli, leader of the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), said that he is giving up all his political duties after he got confirmation from the Hague that an indictment against him was confirmed. Rexhep Selimi is chief of parliamentary group of Vetevendosje. All were members of the KLA

 Dead men tell no tales. Is this their intended fate? Time will tell. 

From earlier today. Don't pass by yet more flawed Covid testing

 Lastly: Still no US President. If it's Biden. Expect war on yet more fronts. The Democrats are very big on war, despite the spin. As demonstrated aptly by Bill Clinton and Barack Obama

 

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More Troublesome Testing: FDA Issues Warning About Potential for False Positive Results with Rapid Detection Antigen Testing

pennyforyourthoughts2 - Thu, 11/05/2020 - 10:01

FDA: Potential for False Positive Results with Antigen Tests for Rapid Detection of SARS-CoV-2 - Letter to Clinical Laboratory Staff and Health Care Providers

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is alerting clinical laboratory staff and health care providers that false positive results can occur with antigen tests, including when users do not follow the instructions for use of antigen tests for the rapid detection of SARS-CoV-2. Generally, antigen tests are indicated for the qualitative  (relating to, measuring, or measured by the quality of something rather than its quantity)detection of SARS-CoV-2 antigens in authorized specimen types collected from individuals who are suspected of COVID-19 by their healthcare provider within a certain number of days of symptom onset. The FDA is aware of reports of false positive results associated with antigen tests used in nursing homes and other settings and continues to monitor and evaluate these reports and other available information about device safety and performance.

The FDA reminds clinical laboratory staff and health care providers about the risk of false positive results with all laboratory tests. (Including the PCR no doubt)

Laboratories should expect some false positive results to occur even when very accurate tests are used for screening large populations with a low prevalence of infection. Health care providers and clinical laboratory staff can help ensure accurate reporting of test results by following the authorized instructions for use of a test and key steps in the testing process as recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), including routine follow-up testing (reflex testing) with a molecular assay when appropriate, and by considering the expected occurrence of false positive results when interpreting test results in their patient populations. 

Recommendations

The FDA recommends clinical laboratory staff and health care providers who use antigen tests for the rapid detection of SARS-CoV-2:

  • Be aware that the Conditions of Authorization in the antigen Emergency Use Authorizations specify that authorized laboratories are to follow the manufacturer's instructions for use, typically found in the package insert, when performing the test and reading test results. If you no longer have the package insert for the test you are using, you can contact the manufacturer.  The authorized instructions for use for each test can also be found on the FDA's COVID-19 IVD EUA webpage
    • For example, the package insert for tests include instructions for handling of the test cartridge/card, such as ensuring it is not stored open prior to use.  If the test components are not stored properly, this can affect the performance of the test.
    • The package insert for tests also includes instructions about reading the test results, including the appropriate time to read the results.  Reading the test before or after the specified time could result in false positive or false negative results.
    •  
  • Be aware that processing multiple specimens in batch mode may make it more challenging to ensure the correct incubation time for each specimen. Refer to the package insert and ensure proper timing for each specimen when processing the specimen in the test device and reading the results.
  • Be careful to minimize the risks of cross-contamination when testing patient specimens, which can cause false positive results. Insufficient cleaning of the workspace, insufficient disinfection of the instrument, or inappropriate use of protective equipment (for example, failing to change gloves between patients) can increase the risk of cross-contamination between specimens with subsequent false positive results. Consider the CDC guidance for changing gloves and cleaning work area between specimen handling and processing.
  • Consider the CDC's recommendations when using antigen testing in nursing homes and other settings. For positive results, especially in low incidence counties, consider performing confirmatory RT-PCR test within 48 hours.
  •  
  • Remember that positive predictive value (PPV) varies with disease prevalence when interpreting results from diagnostic tests. PPV is the percent of positive test results that are true positives. As disease prevalence decreases, the percent of test results that are false positives increase.
    • For example, a test with 98% specificity would have a PPV of just over 80% in a population with 10% prevalence, meaning 20 out of 100 positive results would be false positives.
    • The same test would only have a PPV of approximately 30% in a population with 1% prevalence, meaning 70 out of 100 positive results would be false positives. (which informs us that only 30 percent percent of the results would be correct) This means that, in a population with 1% prevalence, only 30% of individuals with positive test results actually have the disease.
    Let that figure sink in to your brain..
    • At 0.1% prevalence, the PPV would only be 4%, meaning that 96 out of 100 positive results would be false positives.
    • Health care providers should take the local prevalence into consideration when interpreting diagnostic test results.
    Are health care providers considering local prevalence when interpreting diagnostic results? Would they have an incentive to do so? In light of all the financial benefits given to promote Covid 19(84)
  • Consider positive results in combination with clinical observations, patient history, and epidemiological information.
  • Be aware that the Conditions of Authorization in the antigen EUAs specify that Authorized Laboratories are to collect information on the performance of antigen tests and report any suspected occurrence of false positive or false negative results and significant deviations from the established performance characteristics of which they become aware to both the FDA and the test manufacturer.
Are laboratories exercising due diligence?  Troublesome testing
 


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Donald Trump and the Death of Identity Politics- Identity Politics Passing Is A Win For Us All

pennyforyourthoughts2 - Wed, 11/04/2020 - 08:09

Identity Politics is 100 percent a divide to/and conquer tactic. That's all there is to it.

"Identity politics has been co-opted by the neoliberal technocracy to divert attention from wealth inequalities, the dominance of big corporations and financial oligarchy in politics, and the complete lack of democratic accountability of elected officials"
Brendan O’Neill @spectator.co.uk
"Wow, for a white supremacist Donald Trump has done very well among black and Latino voters. Literally Hitler, as some woke agitators loved to call him after he won the election in 2016, seems to have boosted his support among black men and black women and, most strikingly, among Latinos, who appear to be swinging things for Trump in some areas. Not bad for a president who, as the correct-thinking section of society constantly insisted, cares only about white folks.

Yes this abundance of support in the black and latino community for Trump has been reported on

A wave of support from Hispanic voters gave President Donald Trump a narrow victory in battleground state of Florida.

Perceptions of Trump as racist seem to be a driving force pushing whites away. Why is it the opposite for those he's purportedly being racist against? Ah, perceptions.... easily managed. Right? Getting that yet? Won't get fooled again???

Spectator oped continues below

The results from the US are still unclear. Joe Biden might very well end up in the White House. But the stronger-than-expected showing for Trump has delivered an almighty body blow to pollsters and pundits who predicted a Biden landslide and to those who had been praying this election would repudiate Trumpism once and for all. Whatever else the election might do, it hasn’t repudiated Trumpism. But it is very possible that it will repudiate identity politics.

We can hope it will repudiate identity politics so we can focus on that which affects us all! Wealth inequality. The dominance of large corporations. The financial oligarchy. The lack of real democratic accountability

According to one exit poll, white men were the only social group to shift significantly to the Democrats compared with 2016. Among other social groups — including white women, black men and Latinos — there appears to have been a shift towards Trump. I look forward to the myriad op-ed pieces claiming that Joe Biden has been the beneficiary of a ‘whitelash’, of nasty white men defending their own narrow political and social interests. After all, that’s what the chattering classes said when Trump won large numbers of white male votes in 2016, remember?

According to early analysis by CNN, Trump picked up significantly more Latino votes in key battleground states this time round than he did in 2016. In Florida, one of the most stunning results of the night, almost half of Latinos voted for Trump, up from 35 per cent in 2016. The Democrats’ share of the Latino vote in Florida fell from 62 per cent in 2016 to around 50 per cent this time. The Democrats lost Latino voters in Ohio and Georgia too.

There appears to have been a shift of working-class black voters towards Trump too. (this is directly related to the promotion of "black lives matter" including their vaunted pandemic march that amazingly saw no increase in positive test cases) Some saw this coming. As NBC reported a couple of days ago, despite the conventional wisdom of Trump being the president of choice of white folks, actually minority voters were key to his election victory in 2016, and many of them seemed likely to rally around him in 2020 too. He is ‘poised to do even better with minority voters’, NBC predicted, with what looks like ‘highly consistent and broad-based [support] among Blacks and Hispanics’.

If Trump is a white supremacist (narrator: he isn’t), then he isn’t a very good one. We now have the very curious and revealing situation where many white voters — especially university-educated white voters — are anti-Trump on the basis that he is a racist, while many minority voters are more than happy to vote for Trump. For four years, Latinos have been told by the mostly white clever people of the east and west coast elites that Trump hates them, and yet Latinos didn’t listen. They thought for themselves and lined up behind a president whose outlook they seem to prefer to the super-woke, knee-taking, ‘defund the police’ worldview of certain sections of the leftish establishment.

As for working-class black voters going for Trump in seemingly larger numbers this time round, who can blame them? Some of these people will have seen their local areas and businesses smashed up and burnt down by protesters who were cheered, or at least not condemned, by leading Democrats and the anti-Trump media. They will have seen upper-middle-class white anarchists and TikTok revolutionaries from suburbia coming into their areas to throw around some petrol bombs in the name of ‘black lives’. If many of them decided that Trump is preferable to this nonsense, that isn’t surprising.

Not surprising at all.

From what we know so far, it seems that identity politics has taken a bit of a pounding in this election. This would be a very good development. If whites, blacks and Latinos are discovering that they share much in common, that they are united by political concerns, that is a big step forward from the rigid, deadening identitarianism of sections of the left who insist that black people, Latino people and white people all have distinctive interests and should vote accordingly. Where too many in the Democratic wing of politics view voters as racial blocs, as mere ethnicities to be appealed to with ethnic-tinged politics, Trump seems to promise a more universalising form of political life.

For too long it has been assumed that people must vote according to their skin colour or their national heritage. Remember Biden telling a black interviewer that if he hadn’t already decided to vote for the Democrats, ‘then you ain’t black’? Some people underestimate how offensive this infantilising and racialising dynamic is to people of colour. All voters can think for themselves, whatever their background, and this election is confirming that. Let’s hope that whoever wins, identitarianism will lose."

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Boris Johnson: Lockdowns Sold on a Lie (Everywhere) Remember the Definiton of Insanity?

pennyforyourthoughts2 - Tue, 11/03/2020 - 08:26

 Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results. 

  If  the justification of lockdowns is truly reducing covid positive tests, though this tactic has been demonstrated to be a loser, the question that begs asking,  if one is sentient, becomes what is the real reason for this latest round of lock downs?  Across Europe. In parts of Canada. What's the point?

Was lockdown sold on a LIE? Oxford scientist says Covid infections - and 'in effect' deaths – are 'flatlining' and the '4,000 deaths' graph used to justify restrictions has 'proven to be incorrect'

    Carl Heneghan said mathematically the graph should not have been used to justify the new lockdown curbs

Professor Heneghan 


   The professor also told how coronavirus hospital admissions, cases and 'in effect' deaths are flatlining in UK 
    It comes as Sir Patrick Vallance and Prof Chris Whitty face questions from MPs over the 4,000 deaths figure   Meanwhile Britain yesterday recorded its lowest number of daily coronavirus infections in fortnight - 18,950  Coronavirus infections and hospital admissions are already 'flatlining' and graphs that the Government used to justify England's second lockdown were misleading with one 'proven to be incorrect', an Oxford expert claimed today.
Professor Carl Heneghan, from the university's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, has again hit out at the 'out-dated' estimates used by Boris Johnson and his top scientific and medical advisers to drag England into another national shutdown in the dreary TV briefing on Saturday night.
One, which suggested there could be up to 4,000 deaths per day by December, was 'mathematically incorrect' and should not have been used, he said.  

Professor Heneghan, who has been an outspoken critic of the Government's lockdown strategy, said that trends in the country's epidemic have changed in recent weeks and stopped accelerating. Although deaths will continue to rise for weeks because of infections that have already happened, he said they would slow down accordingly.

Meanwhile, Britain yesterday recorded its lowest number of daily Covid infections for a fortnight on the same day Boris Johnson desperately tried to convince Tory MPs to back a draconian second lockdown.

         Insanity reigns supreme

But the measures are stirring resistance, not just among libertarians who see them as an assault on personal freedom and conspiracy theorists who say the virus is a hoax, but from business owners and independent workers worried for their future.

The protests suggest mounting dissatisfaction with governments’ responses to the pandemic and, amid a growing realisation that it will last for some time yet, alarm at the economic consequences even in countries such as Germany and France, where generous economic safety nets are functioning relatively well.

Italy, one of the hardest-hit EU countries this spring, has been the scene of violent protests for more than a week as the government brought in new measures including closing cinemas and theatres and ordering bars and restaurants to shut at 6pm.

There have been skirmishes between police and protesters in Florence and other cities, including Rome, Naples, Turin and Bologna, with clashes between riot officers firing teargas and demonstrators hurling Molotov cocktails, bottles and rocks and overturning bins.

The government is working towards yet tougher measures that could include a national 9pm curfew, a ban on inter-regional travel and the closure of shopping malls at weekends to try to slow an alarming rise in daily infections.



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Pt. 2: Armenia & Azerbaijan Should Seize The Chance For Peace. Recognizing “Artsakh” a Recipe for Trouble. Pipelines, Strategic Energy & Transport Corridors

pennyforyourthoughts2 - Sun, 11/01/2020 - 11:01

 Continuing on with some interesting reads regarding Armenia/Azerbaijan and Nagarno Karabakh............. More on Pipelines, Strategic Energy Corridors etc.,

Pt. 1: Armenia & Azerbaijan Should Seize The Chance For Peace. Recognizing “Artsakh” a Recipe for Trouble. Pipelines, Strategic Energy &Transport CorridorsPart 2 begins..

Not guaranteed, but, definitely a possibility. And one that has been discussed time and time again here. 

 These latest clashes may have unleashed a dangerous new geopolitical dynamic: heavy weapons fire near strategic transportation assets, military posturing between Russia and Turkey, (haven't seen any yet?) and lack of an appropriate mediation mechanism. (A mediation mechanism exists) In the absence of US or EU leadership, it may be up to Turkey and Russia to redirect Azerbaijan and Armenia away from the battlefield and toward the negotiating table.

Pashinian and  Aliev

This article goes back to an incident that took place in July of this year,  covered in this report: What Armenia Won’t Mention About Nagorno Karabakh & It's Occupation- Information Wars and more  After reading a number of  articles,  it seems most likely to me that Armenia attacked the Azerbaijani soldiers on patrol. (An ambush comes to mind) This action resulted in aforementioned mass protests taking place in Azerbaijan. What we're focusing on is the location this incident took place, which is not near Nagorno Kharabak.  We're focusing on Tovuz.  And the incentive for Armenia to start trouble there. Hint: Financial and geo political damage to Azerbaijan.

Tovuz is different. It is one of the last places Baku would want to see fighting because it lies directly on strategic transportation lines that are essential to Azerbaijan’s independence, economic vitality, and strategic significance. These are the:

    Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Supsa oil pipelines, delivering primarily Azerbaijani crude oil to Mediterranean and Black Sea ports (respectively);

    South Caucasus natural gas pipeline, a key element of the EU’s Southern Corridor that will soon pump Azerbaijani gas to the EU via Georgia and Turkey;

    Azerbaijan-Georgia highway, part of Europe’s second-longest road project, the E60, which connects France’s Atlantic coast to Kyrgyzstan-China border;

    Kars-Tbilisi railroad, providing similar strategic connectivity; and

    Fiberoptic cables linking Europe with Central Asia and beyond.

This infrastructure is also strategically important to the United States and NATO. Washington has promoted these oil/gas pipelines for twenty-five years to help its European allies reduce their dependence on Russia, while also avoiding Iran. Meanwhile, the road and rail lines and airspace above comprise a crucial US logistics channel into Afghanistan, enabling one-third of all non-lethal supplies to NATO troops at the height of the Afghan war. And by providing alternatives to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, these transit links can also help the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus maintain their own financial independence.

Washington is fickle.                                            

It may therefore fall to Ankara and Moscow to fill a diplomatic vacuum and convince their respective allies to return to the negotiating table. Despite sharp differences with Russia and Turkey on many fronts, the United States and its European allies would be wise to encourage and shape such a forum. The alternative could be a mutual escalation of emotions and military tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia. While neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan could sustain a full-scale war, even a more limited armed conflict could knock out strategic assets on which NATO and the EU depend. The only beneficiaries would be Russia, Iran, and perhaps China and its Belt and Road Initiative.

Their have been attempted colour revolutions in Azerbaijan. Colour revolutions are always an option for change. Armenians should be aware of that! Colour revolutions. Coup attempts. Assassination. What ever it takes to get the job done for the globalist monopolistic interests. So far Aliyev has hung on to his position.

Reports on earlier colour revolution attempts in Azerbaijan:

@ 1- Azerbaijan ready for it's own revolution @ 2- Baku opposition prepares for 'color revolution’  @ 3- The U.S. Embassy in Baku denies preparing for a color revolution

It won't be difficult to find additional information should you be so inclined

The piece below from the MEI suggests that Russian and Turkish involvement would be a recipe for long term instability. That's subjective. How is the concept of instability being used? The general tone is anti Russian.

Russia is also Azerbaijan’s largest trading partner within the CIS and the Caspian and the third largest global trading partner after Italy and Turkey. Russian officials won’t say it, but Azerbaijan, with its vast energy resources and a more diversified foreign policy is also a bigger prize for Moscow. In addition, Moscow was unpleasantly surprised in 2018 by the peaceful anti-corruption Velvet Revolution in Armenia and in the immediate aftermath edged closer to Azerbaijan, even as it retained deep ties to Armenia. Currently, Moscow’s delayed reaction may be partly motivated by a desire to punish current Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan who led the Velvet Revolution.

For those of you who just don't get, can't grasp the idea that Russia is not solely and only 'wedded' to Armenia. . Please remove head from sand. Or run along and read at other places that deliver to and reinforce all your preconceived notions and illusory truths

Azerbaijan’s Armed Forces have performed a slow but steady deep flanking maneuver in the valley of the Aras River, north of the Iranian border, defeating the opposing Armenian forces and repelling attempted Armenian counterattacks to cut off the advancing armor pincer (see EDM, October 19). Azerbaijani military units have bypassed the main Armenian defense fortifications and now may attack the heart of “Artsakh” (Armenian name for Karabakh) from the unfortified rear. Azerbaijani armor is in the vicinity of Lachin, a strategic town on the main supply road from Armenia proper to Karabakh. The Yerevan-backed separatist Karabakh leader, Arayik Harutyunyan, has announced that Azerbaijani forces are only five kilometers from Shusha and called for “everyone” to defend the city: “Who controls Shusha controls Karabakh” (Interfax, October 29). Armenian defenses and morale may be collapsing. The Karabakh cause could be lost; and with it may fall Pashinyan, seen in Moscow as a Western “stooge” (see EDM, October 8). If that was, indeed, one of the Kremlin’s key strategic objectives, Russian efforts to impose an overall ceasefire might suddenly become more effective once the Armenian prime minister is replaced.We've entertained the idea of Russia sitting on the sidelines, more then once, since Pashinian has repeatedly shown himself to be lacking in diplomatic skills, with no real desire to compromise and settle this issue. Despite Russia working for years at trying to accomplish just that.

Energy, as well as general transit and transportation, are important contexts of the current escalation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Currently, the key transit energy infrastructure elements with international significance include two oil pipelines connecting oil-producing fields in the Azerbaijani section of the Caspian Sea to the Georgian Black Sea port of Supsa and the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan: the smaller, 100,000 barrel per day capacity Baku-Supsa pipeline, and the larger, million-barrel capacity Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. At present, around 700,000 barrels of oil flows through these two pipelines, supplying crude oil to Turkish, Israeli, and other Mediterranean refineries. The BTC pipeline currently carries mainly crude oil from ACG fields and Shah Deniz condensate from the Azerbaijani section of the Caspian Sea. In addition, other volumes of crude oil and condensate continue to be transported via BTC, including from Turkmenistan, Russia, and Kazakhstan.

Another important infrastructure network of international significance is the so-called South Caucasus Gas Pipeline, also known as the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum natural gas pipeline. It started with the production of 8 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas annually at the Shah-Deniz field near Baku. Since 2007, it has been used to export gas to Georgia and Turkey. This pipeline, and the natural gas from the Shah-Deniz field, has provided Georgia with a much-needed alternative to Russian natural gas supplies, and has helped Turkey to diversify its supplies as well. This pipeline became a basis for the larger pipeline system crossing six countries: the Sothern Gas Corridor (SGC). This $45 billion project – the largest energy project in the world between 2014 and 2020 – allowed production of an additional 16 bcm per year. The largest recipient of the gas will be Italy. The system of pipelines has linked an upgraded South Caucasus Pipeline to the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) in Turkey, which is already bringing Azerbaijani gas to the western border of Turkey. The first supply of gas reached TANAP in Turkey in 2018. From there, natural gas will be directed to European markets via the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which stretches between Greece, Albania, and Italy. Initially, 10 bcm of natural gas will be exported through TAP each year, but capacity can be increased to 20 bcm. For comparison, Russia, the main supplier of natural gas to the EU, plans to export 170 bcm to Europe in 2020.

The Southern Gas Corridor will be fully operational by the end of 2020, directly connecting natural gas fields in the Caspian to EU markets for the first time. Although initial volumes will cover only about two percent of total European demand, the project has the potential to expand substantially based on increased volumes from other fields in both Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan.

The picture is different for the Turkish market. Russia has traditionally dominated the Turkish natural gas market since the 1990’s. In 2018, Russia sold 24 bcm of natural gas to Turkey, making it one of the most significant markets for Russia’s Gazprom. Two major pipelines directly connect Russia to Turkey via the Black Sea. The Blue Stream Pipeline with the capacity of 16 bcm was commissioned in 2005. The Turkstream pipeline has a capacity of 31.5 bcm annually and began supplying gas to Turkey in January 2020. These two pipelines allow Russia to bypass Ukraine for its supplies to Turkey, Bulgaria, and other markets in Southern Europe, and serve not only commercial, but also major geopolitical objectives of Russia aimed at increasing dependency on Russian gas in Turkey and the Balkans.

On the other hand, the Southern Gas Corridor has allowed Turkey to buy more Azerbaijani gas at a better price. Turkey received more than 6 bcm of Azerbaijani gas between January and July of 2020, an increase of 24 percent compared to the same period last year. Turkey has contracts to purchase more than 12 bcm from Azerbaijan, and transit infrastructure crossing Azerbaijan and Georgia allows Turkey to receive these volumes of gas with no geopolitical strings attached. These realities led to a major drop of Russian gas sales to Turkey. Turkey is also buying more LNG from the United States and other sources, allowing major diversification from dependency on Russia. During the first quarter of 2020, Gazprom’s share on Turkish market dropped below 10 percent, compared to 33 percent in March 2019.

To fully understand the energy context of the current conflict, it is important to also mention that development of pipeline projects connecting Azerbaijan to world markets became possible with major political and diplomatic support from the United States. For more than two decades, the United States has invested significant political and financial resources in the process of strengthening the political and economic sovereignty of countries of the Caspian. This effort facilitated the development of vibrant trade and transit between the Caspian region and the Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean. Resource-rich Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, as well as transit and consumer countries like Georgia and Turkey, are the major beneficiaries of the functioning and expanding pipeline, railway, highway, and port infrastructure. Turkey acted (past tense) as a close ally and partner, working closely with the United States to enhance cooperation between regional countries, improving regional connectivity, as well as the region’s connectivity to the rest of the world.
           
So far, Russia’s response to the escalation of conflict is a major puzzle for observers. Some, in our opinion naively, assume Russia no longer has the bandwidth to intervene and impact the two sides. Looking in depth to the realities of the conflict, Russia is probably the only party that will benefit from a prolonged conflict from both an energy and geopolitical perspective. Potential military success of Azerbaijan weakens Armenia and its more reform-minded leadership, headed by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who came to power through one of President Vladimir Putin’s much-despised color revolutions. To the extent that an Armenian leader can be anti-Russian, Pashinyan is perceived as anti-Russian and relatively more Western leaning compared to his predecessors. Reminding him of Russia’s role in Armenia’s security interests seems to be one explanation of the limited and slow Russian response to the conflict.

In contrast, Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev has never openly challenged Russia. Azerbaijan does not seek membership in NATO or the EU, does not challenge the leadership style of President Putin through democratic rhetoric, and maintains a strategic partnership with Russia as well. Russia could not ignore the careful approach of President Aliyev toward Russia and personally toward President Putin. Russia and Putin are mindful about perceptions. This understanding was reflected in President Putin’s statement on October 22 at the meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club, which probably surprised some observers, but reflects the balanced approach Russia tries to maintain on the surface, at least for now: “Russia sees Armenia and Azerbaijan as its equal partners, it has always had special ties with both countries.”

Recent related

 If you've gotten through all this information. Checked links back to original source including, but not limited to, previous posts done by myself, it seems impossible to comprehend that you can believe the simplistic black vs white narrative that is largely presented in the main stream and alternative media. It's not Armenia = Ally of Russia = Good. Compared to Turkey = Ally of Azerbaijan and Islamist = Bad. It's so much more complicated then that. Clearly Russia understands this. As does Iran. Turkey. And all the neighbours in the 'hood. Aliyev comes off as more understanding (ability to comprehend) of this situation. Pashinian is still coming off like the bull in the china shop. Why?And Georgia. The opposition is protesting the election  More turmoil in the region "The opposition said the elections were rigged and promised to hold protests until a new election was called."

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Pt. 1: Armenia & Azerbaijan Should Seize The Chance For Peace. Recognizing “Artsakh” a Recipe for Trouble. Pipelines, Strategic Energy &Transport Corridors

pennyforyourthoughts2 - Sat, 10/31/2020 - 17:50

 We're going long. It has to be done because the situation around Nagarno Karabakh is vastly more complicated then is being covered. The media, alt and main stream, is largely spin with a liberal dose of anti Muslim attitude. France has been over the top with this as of late.  Curiously today a Greek Orthodox Priest ( Christian/Greece) was shot by  Muslim extremist ( Islam/Turkey) You see how memes play over and over in the media. Reinforcement. It keeps you focused. Fearful. And controlled. (Like the never ending Covid 1984 fear mongering)

 I’m thinking the impending selection in the US is the reason for their quiet in this situation. Though I’ve no doubt the US/UK and France in particular have been very busy behind the scenes.. Canada, too. (Have you all noticed Canada's  talk and actions?) Quite frankly, I don’t buy this idea that Israel is in Azerbaijan’s court either.  Super zio Macron is too enthralled/enmeshed with Armenia’s cause to think Israel is not standing firmly behind him. Also Israel's surprise recognition of Kosovo is a factor in my belief (we'll touch on that shortly

-Possible Outcomes?

1- Western Imperial Powers will Recognize “Artsakh” Talked about this here previously. This move will certainly set the region alight!

2- Turkey and Russia will send peace keepers in. The issue of territory will be settled once and for all. The same type of cooperation as we see in Syria. Iran may participate as well.   

The idea of recognizing Arstakh was mentioned back on October 02/30

Armenia's Colour Revolution Flunky Pashiny(i)an: "Our Goal Is Total Victory" International Recognition of Nagarno Kharabak (Artsahk) in the Cards?

quid pro quo
While I'd thought this seemingly out of the blue recognition of Kosovo, could be tied to the stolen and occupied territory of Syria- Israel would also benefit, greatly, from recognizing this disputed territory as "independent". In fact they can move right on into the freshly recognized independent territory alongside their Kurdish allies. And their Greek pals too.
Recognizing NK will not bring peace. That’s for sure. Not to anyone. Not to the Armenian's, though they may be overjoyed at the prospect. Not for the Azerbaijani's. Who will be inflamed by the move. No peace for Turkey. None for Iran. Certainly none for Russia.

“While addressing Armenian supporters at a campaign rally on Sunday, President Donald Trump invoked Kosovo in his pledge to resolve the ongoing humanitarian crisis in the South Caucasus. In doing so, Trump may have inadvertently acknowledged the solution to Azerbaijan’s decades of aggression against Armenia (spin obviously, this is Azerbaijani territory) —the recognition of Artsakh’s independence.” Armenian Lobby has $$$
So there it is! Trump’s talking about the idea of recognizing this territory as independent. The selection has required that he would be relatively quiet, but, the idea (goal?)  was always there. An opportunity for discord. For chaos, begging to be reordered.  Israel’s sudden recognition of Kosovo was taken for specific geo strategic/ political reasons. That’s certainly how the timely decision was viewed here.  To believe otherwise would be foolish. Israel is part of earlier redrawn world borders, after WW2 and what has occurred in the region since 2001, this latest ongoing remake, can be viewed as World War 3. With less manpower. And why not? When technological advances have sanitized warfare, reducing the reliance on manpower. Save for the global mercenary force that does the dirty work for more then  a ‘fistful of dollars’

Excerpts from some interesting reads:

Atlantic Council: Armenia and Azerbaijan should seize chance for peace
Azerbaijan seems poised to capture a crucial city that could end the military phase of its war with Armenia. Securing a political victory in the war, however, will require Azerbaijan’s restraint to avert a humanitarian catastrophe that could arise were its forces to press all the way into the capital of the region.

On October 29, the leader of Nagorno Karabakh, Arayik Harutyunyan, issued an ominous warning that Azerbaijani troops were within 5 kilometers of the city of Shushi.  He then appealed to all residents of Nagorno Karabakh to join the fight to hold the city, stressing, “As in 1992, when our victory began with the liberation of Shushi, today, our victory depends on the defense of Shushi.”

Known to Azerbaijanis as Shusha, this city within Nagorno Karabakh is of great importance to both sides. Culturally, both Armenians and Azerbaijanis consider the city a cradle of their respective cultures. Militarily, it sits atop commanding heights above Nagorno Karabakh’s capital, Stepanakert (or Khankendi for Azerbaijanis). Whoever controls Shusha controls the “Lachin Corridor,” the lifeline linking Armenia to Stepanakert via the occupied Azerbaijani district of Lachin.

During the past month, Azerbaijan’s army has been decimating Armenian forces.  Initially, Azerbaijan relied on precision drone strikes (using drones purchased from Turkey and Israel) to destroy Armenia’s high-value military assets (e.g., air defenses, tanks, and artillery) and regain its districts of Fuzuli and Jabrayil, which, like five others that surround Nagorno Karabakh, had been occupied by Armenia since the first Karabakh war. Azerbaijani forces then achieved a military breakthrough along the border with Iran about two weeks ago. Azerbaijan subsequently shifted to a combined arms operation that has pushed northward, regaining its regions of Zenglian and Gubadli, and now pressing into Lachin and toward Shusha.

Azerbaijan’s battlefield successes have sparked fears that the Azerbaijani military might now press its advantage to Shushi and beyond to Khankendi, spurred on by Azerbaijani citizens’ newfound nationalist fervor. Such sentiment has intensified as civilian casualties have mounted from Armenian shelling (including by tactical ballistic missiles) of Azerbaijani towns far from the conflict zone. These attacks have been accompanied by Azerbaijani shelling of Armenian civilians in Stepanakert/Khankendi.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, however, has consistently proposed more restrained goals, namely to:

 1- Regain political control of Azerbaijan’s seven districts that surround Nagorno Karabakh

  2- Facilitate the return of displaced Azerbaijanis to their former homes in Nagorno Karabakh and its seven surrounding Azerbaijani reasons;

   3- Rebuild these regained territories; and
    Resume negotiations with Armenia about the future legal status of Nagorno Karabakh, with the region’s Armenian residents free to remain in their homes after their former Azerbaijani neighbors return.


Convincing Armenians to remain in Nagorno Karabakh will be difficult. They fear for their physical security and loathe being forced to become citizens of Azerbaijan if Nagorno Karabakh returns to Baku’s control. In an October 29  interview to Russia’s Interfax News Agency, however, President Aliyev suggested a way forward. On security, Aliyev announced that Azerbaijan is “…ready to stop all military operations immediately” if Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan commits to withdraw all Armenian troops from the conflict zone. It is important to recognize that Aliyev insisted only on a commitment by Yerevan to withdraw its troops rather than actual withdrawal.

On citizenship rights, Aliyev reiterated his call for negotiations to end the conflict on the basis of the so-called “Basic Principles.” First tabled in November 2007 by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Minsk Group, the Basic Principles allow inter alia for Nagorno Karabakh’s Armenian residents to claim they are not citizens of Azerbaijan because they live in a region whose legal status is ambiguous and not necessarily part of Azerbaijan.

Pashinyan will resist accepting these conditions. He has already declared “There is no diplomatic solution” to the war over Nagorno Karabakh and publicly abandoned the Basic Principles and their fundamental formula of “land for peace,” instead embracing a formulation of “new territories for new wars.” President Aliyev also faces political danger at home if he defies intense popular sentiment for total military victory.
  Aliyev has definitely been more toned down in rhetoric. I’ve been reading and reading, as much as possible, the language employed by both Aliyev and Pashinian. Pashinian is a spin doctor. Through and through.
As they fill a diplomatic vacuum in the region, Russia and Turkey may now be planning to counsel their respective partners to show restraint. In the October 10 ceasefire agreement Russia brokered between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russian President Vladimir Putin apparently compelled Pashinyan again to embrace the Basic Principles, (which his predecessor and President Aliyev informally accepted in January 2009).  Meanwhile, Turkey’s Daily Sabah newspaper reports that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has told Putin that Russia could lean on Armenia while Turkey could do the same with Azerbaijan to end the fighting.

The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan would be wise to embrace the political cover their Russian and Turkish counterparts might provide. To survive politically, Pashinyan needs Putin’s public support if he is to stop the fighting by committing to withdraw all Armenian troops and proceed with peace talks in line with the Basic Principles. But by doing so, Pashinyan would save many Armenian soldiers’ lives and provide Nagorno Karabakh’s Armenian residents a chance for a peaceful and prosperous future.  He would also bring Armenia into compliance with four United Nations Security Council Resolutions calling for its troops to withdraw from the Azerbaijani regions they occupy. And if Aliyev is willing to defy the Azerbaijani public’s demands for military vengeance, he will spare his country international
pariah status
while enabling Azerbaijan to attract the international support it will need to rebuild its recovered lands.To date I've read nothing that indicates Pashinian's willingness to compromise.

Part 2 is published:

Pt. 2: Armenia & Azerbaijan Should Seize The Chance For Peace. Recognizing “Artsakh” a Recipe for Trouble. Pipelines, Strategic Energy & Transport Corridors
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Asbestos Could Be A Powerful Weapon Against Climate Change - Death Cult Thinking

pennyforyourthoughts2 - Thu, 10/29/2020 - 16:44

 This was the post I'd alluded to here: Johnson and Johnson Halts Late Stage Covid Vaccine Trial After “Mystery Illness”
We’ll be talking about Asbestos in short order. It seems the geo engineering crowd believes Asbestos can save us all from “global warming”  

The death cult never stops coming up with ways to cause harm do they? As long as money is made.

Technology Review - Asbestos as a powerful weapon against climate change (excerpted because only so much insanity could be stomached by moi)
"Scientists are exploring ways to use mineral waste from mines to pull huge amounts of carbon dioxide out of the air.On a scorching day this August, Caleb Woodall wielded his shovel like a spear, stabbing it into the hardened crust of an asbestos-filled pit near Coalinga, California. Woodall, a graduate student at Worcester Polytechnic Institute in Massachusetts, was digging out samples from an asbestos mine that’s been shuttered since 1980, a Superfund site on the highest peak in the state’s Diablo Range. He extracted pounds of the material from several locations across San Benito Mountain, shoveled them into Ziploc bags, and shipped them to a pair of labs for analysis. He and his colleagues are trying to determine the makeup and structure of the materials pulled from the pits, and to answer two critical questions: How much carbon dioxide do they contain—and how much more could they store?

The vast surface area of certain types of fibrous asbestos, a class of carcinogenic compounds once heavily used in heat-resistant building materials, makes them particularly good at grabbing hold of the carbon dioxide molecules dissolved in rainwater or floating through the air. That includes the most common form of asbestos, chrysotile, a serpentine mineral laced throughout the mountain (serpentine is California’s state rock). The reaction with carbon dioxide mainly produces magnesium carbonate minerals like magnesite, a stable material that could lock away the greenhouse gas for millennia.
Woodall and his advisor Jennifer Wilcox, a carbon removal researcher,(carbon removal researcher???)  are among a growing number of scientists exploring ways to accelerate these otherwise slow reactions in hopes of using mining waste to fight climate change. It’s a handy carbon-capturing trick that may also work with the calcium- and magnesium-rich by-products of nickel, copper, diamond, and platinum mining.

The initial hope is to offset the ample carbon emissions from mining itself using these minerals already extracted in the process. But the real hope is that this early work allows them to figure out how to effectively and affordably dig up minerals, potentially including asbestos, specifically for the purpose of drawing down vast amounts of greenhouse gas from the atmosphere."

Caleb Woodall puts asbestos samples into ziplock bag

 

" In a pilot project last year, funded by the diamond company De Beers and Natural Resources Canada, he and colleagues used tailings from a mine in Canada’s Northwest Territories to ensnare carbon dioxide released from a tank. 

The point was to evaluate the possibility of using minerals to capture and store the gas from the flue stream of a power plant."

The team is now conducting a field trial for a proposed nickel plant in British Columbia. They've placed tailings from exploratory drilling into assorted containers, and are measuring the reaction rates that result from using different chemical additives and processes under different weather conditions. But they expect that simply adding water and effectively tilling the materials will rapidly remove carbon dioxide from the air, forming a solid block that can be buried.Tailings from mining. Waste material. Often highly toxic. In other words this is a plan, a means, for big business to generate profits from their waste. Think fluoride. Same deal.


Toxic Treatment: Fluoride's Transformation from Industrial Waste to Public Health Miracle

 As historian Frank Zelko points out this month, a profitable way to put to use a waste byproduct from the production of fertilizer.

Highly toxic hydrogen fluoride and silicon tetrafluoride gases are by-products of fertilizer production. Prior to the 1970s, these pollutants were vented into the atmosphere and gave central Florida some of the most noxious air pollution in the country.

During the 1960s, however, complaints by farmers and ranchers eventually forced reluctant manufacturers to invest in pollution abatement scrubbers that converted toxic vapors into fluorosilicic acid (FSA), a dangerous but more containable liquid waste

Many are surprised to learn that unlike the pharmaceutical grade fluoride in their toothpaste, the fluoride in their water is an untreated industrial waste product, one that contains trace elements of arsenic and lead. Without the phosphate industry’s effluent, water fluoridation would be prohibitively expensive. And without fluoridation, the phosphate industry would be stuck with an expensive waste disposal problem.

 Since most people don't bother to inform themselves it's going to be easy enough for ' toxic tailings' to be employed as a "magic bullet"  to remedy  "human caused global warming. The mascot Greta will help green wash the toxic industries filth for them

Next stepsWoodall is exploring asbestos sites because he hopes to find one that might work well for a subsequent field trial to evaluate ways of accelerating carbon uptake.The approaches could include spreading the material out to increase the reactive surface area, running fans that increase the amount of air flowing over the asbestos, or directly injecting concentrated carbon dioxide into the mineral pits. Over time, these processes should form a mix of loosely bound rock and dirt, mainly composed of magnesium carbonates, bicarbonate, and calcium carbonate, that could simply be left in place, Aines says.But is it safe to blow air around asbestos? (What a stupid question) And would such efforts actually clean up these toxic sites?
 Given the health risks of asbestos, where—or even whether—any subsequent work takes place will depend on the determinations of scientific oversight boards and regulatory officials. It’s possible that some amount of asbestos would remain or could be dispersed in the course of doing the work, Aines says. That’s one of the key things that would need to be tested, he adds.

Woodall and Aines both say that could include asbestos, given how reactive it is, if field trials show the process is effective and safe.
But that idea is sure to raise serious concerns given the health risks posed by asbestos. And there are lots of other mineral options, even if they’re not quite as ideal.
Mining for any materials on a far larger scale, however, will face a number of challenges. Mining itself is environmentally destructive. All the energy required to extract, grind, distribute, and process the minerals will eat into any emissions reductions. And there could be serious limits on the available land, particularly since it can take years for most of the minerals to react with carbon dioxide.

For example, removing 2.5 billion tons of CO2 per year using magnesium oxide would require a 10-centimeter-thick (nearly 4 inches) layer covering about 15,000 square kilometers (almost 5,800 square miles), according to a Nature Communications paper in July. That’s equivalent to a little more than 5% of Nevada.But the major stumbling block is the cost. Wilcox says it can run more than $200 per ton all-in, which is far more expensive than planting trees.It’s possible that some of the materials could go into commercial products, like the aggregates in concrete, to defray the costs. Some level of voluntary carbon offsets, where people or corporations pay to balance out their own emissions, could help as well. But getting to the scale of billions of tons, most observers believe, will take aggressive public policies that put high prices on carbon pollution or create generous incentives for removing it.
 Are you taking note of the insanity inherent in this profit making scheme? Are you understanding the death cult at work in this plan? Cause if you don't. There's no help for you. From earlier today. It's been busy that's for sure. Tomorrow... may be very quiet.  

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Putin Calls for Turkish Involvement In OSCE Minsk Talks

pennyforyourthoughts2 - Thu, 10/29/2020 - 13:05

 I'm not surprised in the least and have been waiting (hoping) for this to take place. The stance here has been very clear. Diplomacy. Involving nations who have legitimate concerns about this latest round of fighting. That includes Turkey and Iran.

 Sept. 27/20 - Birth Pangs: Nagarno Karabakh Flares Up- Regional Instability Rises & Which Parties Want Russia and Turkey at Odds? 

It’s curious. The timing of of this flare up.  Russia and Turkey have been cooperating in Syria. Making agreements concerning Libya.  Trade. Tourism. Purchases of the S-400.

Diplomacy has been working between the two nations for some time now.

 You know there are interested parties who just hate that cooperation, right?

October 06/20- Birth Pangs: Nagorno Karabakh, France's Proxy War & Budding Turkish Russian Alliance. Etc., 

 As conditions are repeatedly created to push that button and yet to the credit of both Turkey and Russia they've continued on resolving situation after situation with a savvy diplomacy that is apparent and yet flies under the radar.  Even the so called "alternative media" vomits up the same bile. 

Forgive me for noticing the 'alternative media' reads a lot like Pravda these days..

The latest: Putin favors Turkey's participation in OSCE Minsk Group

Russian president says Armenia and Azerbaijan should resolve Karabakh conflict through talks"At the first stage, we need to stop fighting, stop the loss of life, sit down at the negotiating table and find a consensus and balance of interests based on the proposals formulated by the Minsk group and its co-chairs -- Russia, the US, and France -- along with the participation of other members, including Turkey and a number of European states," he said.

 Reuters- Putin calls for Turkish involvement in Nagorno-Karabakh talks

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Turkey should be among countries involved in talks to end fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh, as Azerbaijan and Armenia again accused each other on Thursday of shelling civilians in and around the mountain enclave. 

TASS

Russia’s position remains open, he emphasized. "We initially went on a premise that the possibility of transferring five plus two regions to Azerbaijan must be discussed with ensuring a certain regime for the Karabakh zone and cooperation with Armenia," he explained.

According to the president, the conflict must be settled so that people could feel safe; at the same time conditions must be created for an efficient development of the territories. "[This] would make it possible, including for many of the participants in our today’s discussion, to take part in the development of these territories, to invest," the president noted. "And there is room for investment there. People are very efficient and talented in both of these countries," he stressed.

Abdullah: Thoughts? I'm hoping, same as always. this can be resolved with no more blood shed. 

From earlier:

Propaganda Does Not Want Any Argument: A Conversation With NYU Professor Mark Crispin Miller
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Propaganda Does Not Want Any Argument: A Conversation With NYU Professor Mark Crispin Miller

pennyforyourthoughts2 - Thu, 10/29/2020 - 10:09

 Background:

 The interview came to my attention via Yaya

Penny link 28/10/2020 03:27:08 pm

Hey Yaya:

I did listen to the interview and am going to share it at my place- He likes the Ice Age Farmer (gave him a mention) - Always linked in the sidebar to the right.

I've not had a chance to read his article, but, intend to do so.

That all said he made some good points about the phony greens- that extinction rebellion and greta thunberg

He's right in line with my thinking that they are a death cult.

His indictment of the left was spot on. (I used to be a card carrying NDP member) but I was just saying to someone they've not met a war they didn't like
And I did tell them that when they used to call for donations! After my numerous complaints and refusal to give money they stopped calling

Reply yaya 28/10/2020 06:36:23 pm

I'm like you, Penny; in "no man's land". No one to vote for, all by myself ... I feel like Fats Waller, but not so happy on the shelf.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSNPpssruFY

I knew you'd like Prof. Miller. There's no artifice about him; he's calm, natural, clear, logical thinking, not vindictive, and entirely believable.

The interview is far ranging. 

 Covid, Mask usage. Eugenics.  Points out Eugenics has a "green mantle" Which it does. Cites Greta Thunberg, mascot for the Extinction Rebellion (Margaret Sanger does not get a free pass)  Bill Gates. The Great Reset. Smart Cities. Defunding the Police. Black Lives Matter, Disappointment with the so called "progressives" and much more. 

 

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The Most Dangerous Disease in The World

pennyforyourthoughts2 - Wed, 10/28/2020 - 07:31

 Couldn't resist embedding the latest from JP. But, please, either before or after you enjoy the video you simply must read the report from earlier today and share it, far and wide. Though by doing so, realize you will be spreading the 'most dangerous disease' in the WORLD

 And now JP (Awaken with JP)  
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Scientists Debate How Much to LOWER THE BAR on Covid-19 Vaccine Potential- Disconcerting

pennyforyourthoughts2 - Wed, 10/28/2020 - 06:53

 Yup, "LOWER THE BAR"

The definition of "lower the bar" is as follows: lower the standards which need to be met in order to qualify for something..

Therefore 'scientists' (?) are debating how low a standard can be set, that would still allow for promotion of this injection as a vaccine.

NBC Health NEWS

"Everyone thinks  ( believes falsely, delusional) Covid-19 will go away with a vaccine," said William Haseltine, chair and president of Access Health International, a foundation that advocates for affordable care.

Ongoing clinical trials are primarily designed to show whether Covid-19 vaccine candidates prevent any symptoms of the disease which could be as minor as a sore throat or a cough. But the trials, which will study 30,000 to 60,000 volunteers, will be too brief and too small to prove that the vaccines will prevent what people fear most — being hospitalized or dying — by the time the first vaccine makers file for emergency use authorization, which is expected to occur later this year, Haseltine said.

Ongoing clinical trials are designed to show that the vaccine prevents symptoms of the disease.

Dr. Peter Lurie, a former Food and Drug Administration official who is president of the Center for Science in the Public Interest, said: "Would we like to know if the vaccine reduces illness or mortality? Of course. But there is a real time pressure. This is a pandemic. It's explosive."

Would we like to know if the vaccine reduces illness or mortality?  Of course. But, that can't be told or known at this time- Lowering the bar...

Researchers debated how rigorously to test Covid-19 vaccine candidates at a public meeting Thursday of the FDA's advisory committee on vaccines.

"Simply preventing mild cases is not enough and may not justify the risks associated with vaccination," said Peter Doshi, an associate professor at the University of Maryland School of Pharmacy, who detailed his concerns in an editorial in The BMJ.

"Simply preventing mild cases is not enough and may not justify the risks associated with vaccination"

But vaccine experts say there are good reasons to focus on milder cases of Covid-19.

Vaccines that prevent mild disease typically (assumption) prevent severe disease, as well, said Dr. Arnold Monto, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan's School of Public Health and temporary chair of the vaccine committee.

 Proving that a vaccine prevents severe illness and death is harder than showing that it protects against mild illness, because hospitalizations and deaths are much rarer. That's especially true among the type of health-conscious people who volunteer for vaccine trials, who are probably more likely than others to wear masks and to socially distance, Schaffner said.

Recall my mentioning the two women who became vaccine damaged, by all appearances, during the Covid vaccine trials, when they both acquired Myelitis (neurological disorder). AZ claimed the one woman had an undiagnosed case of MS, which I found doubtful. My comfort in saying that came from the fact that the drug companies would have gone through their guinea pigs health history, including  undertaking further assessments, with a fine tooth comb before they would have been allowed to participate. I could not imagine how it was possible her MS had be undiagnosed. Then there was the young man who died in Brazil.

Scientists agree that the ideal vaccine would provide "sterilizing immunity" — which means preventing not only disease symptoms but also any infection with the virus, said Dr. Corey Casper, a vaccinologist with the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and CEO at the Infectious Disease Research Institute in Seattle.
Few expect Covid-19 vaccines to be that effective. "We're trying to lower that bar and determine how much lower is acceptable," Casper said.

Few expect Covid-19 vaccines to be that effective. "We're trying to lower that bar and determine how much lower is acceptable," Casper said.

Although the coronavirus vaccine trials are measuring severe disease or death, these are "secondary endpoints," meaning the current study isn't large enough to produce a statistically significant answer, Neuzil said.

Whether vaccines reduce severe disease and death will become clear in later studies, after vaccines are distributed, she said.

In other words, this is one giant experiment. That much is very clear.

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Iran Prepares Plan For Sustainable Soloution to Nagorno Karabakh Conflict- Putin, Erdogan and Their Foreign Minsisters Talk

pennyforyourthoughts2 - Tue, 10/27/2020 - 16:57

Recall my wholehearted agreement with Bhadrakumar?

Btw: Putin and Erdogan have been exchanging views

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu discussed the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh during a phone call on Tuesday, the Russian ministry said in a statement.

They also discussed the situation in Syria and Libya, it added.

 The idea of an Astana 2.0 as probable working solution could help settle this issue?

An Astana 2.0 if you like?

 Daily Sabah

Iran has prepared a proposal for a permanent solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Iranian top diplomat said Tuesday.

Foreign Minister Javad Zarif told state television that his deputy, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, will visit Baku and Yerevan in coming days to present the plan to Azerbaijani and Armenian authorities.

Armenia must respect the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, according to Zarif, who said the conflict must be resolved through peaceful diplomatic means.

Araghchi is scheduled to visit Baku, Moscow, Yerevan and Ankara to promote the Iranian initiative, said Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh, according to Iranian official news agency IRNA.

Mehr

Speaking in his meeting with the Governor General of East Azarbaijan province in Tabriz on Tuesday, Seyyed Abbas Araghchi said that security of frontiersmen is very important for the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Turning to his trip to the countries of Republic of Azerbaijan, Russia, Armenia and Turkey, Araghchi added, “In this trip, I am carrying the initiative of the Islamic Republic of Iran to resolve the war erupted between two neighboring counties of Azerbaijan and Armenia.”

He expressed his hope that peace and tranquility would prevail in the region with the cooperation and collaboration of all influential countries in the region.

Governor General of East Azarbaijan province Mohammad Reza Pour-Mohammadi, for his part, pointed to his correspondences with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with regards to the security of borders and added, “Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia are Iran’s neighbors. With respecting to the territorial integrity of the two countries of Azerbaijan and Armenia, we are in favor of a peaceful solution to Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and country’s diplomatic apparatus will certainly take necessary steps in this regard.”

From earlier 

Yesterday: 

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TV Journalist in France Hounded for Nagarno Karabakh Reporting By Armenia's Supporters- "Genocidal Whore"

pennyforyourthoughts2 - Tue, 10/27/2020 - 14:26

 The Armenian Propaganda machine has been over the top. Nearly rabid.

Reporters Without Borders

Reporters Without Borders (RSF) condemns the online attacks that a French TV reporter received from members of the Armenian community in France after just doing her job by covering the current fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region from the Azerbaijani side of the front line.

Liseron Boudoul, a staff reporter for the French TV channel TF1, began receiving hate messages on Facebook and Twitter, including such insults as “genocidal whore,” after TFI broadcast her report on its 8 p.m. news programme on 22 October. She was also subjected to pressure via a WhatsApp text from someone who had managed to get her personal phone number.

TF1 was itself also targeted by systematic harassment on social media and in emails and phone calls.

Two reporters for a leading French daily were also subjected to online threats from members of the Armenian community in France in early October in connection with their articles about the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

“We firmly condemn the harassment to which Liseron Boudoul and TF1 have been subjected,” said Pavol Szalai, the Head of RSF’s European Union and Balkans Desk. “It is unacceptable for a journalist and a media outlet to be hounded in this way for covering a conflict, on the grounds that they placed themselves on a certain side of the front line.”

Szalai added: We also call on Franck Papazian, the co-chair of the Coordinating Council of Armenian Organizations in France, to unequivocally condemn this grave attack on freedom of the press.

In a Facebook comment, Papazian described Boudoul’s report as “similar to disinformation.” One of the comments that followed said: “It’s possible that with a few beheadings of senior TF1 personnel, they will think better and more clearly.”

It's possible with a few more beheadings they will think better and more clearly?

The day after Boudoul’s report was broadcast, members of the Armenian community demonstrated spontaneously outside TF1’s headquarters in Paris in protest against what they regarded as the TV channel’s biased coverage.

A few days before Boudoul’s report, TF1 had broadcast two reports from the Armenian side of the front line. To defuse tension, TF1 finally removed Boudoul’s report from its website.

Caving in to extremist behaviour, bullying and threats TF1 removed the report.

The first casualty of war is always truth

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3rd Ceasefire Faltering in Nagarno Karabahk: Predictable- Proof of Foreign Fighters in the Armenian Camp

pennyforyourthoughts2 - Mon, 10/26/2020 - 09:33

As mentioned last night

3rd Attempt at Ceasefire in Nagarno Karabakh- OSCE Press Release                      

Where to begin? How about a quick overview? 5 points.

1st-  Armenia is the party least interested in a ceasefire. Azerbaijan has international law in it's corner.  NK being recognized at their territory. Yes, Azerbaijan will fight should it be required, but, they have less incentive to do so when they can negotiate to settle the issue

2nd: This bizarre idea that Turkey wants more instability, on it’s border is...well, bizarre. Seems vastly more probable they DO NOT WANT greater instability. Nor does Iran.


3rd- Armenia has definitely been using foreigners to fight. Besides early reports which had PKK kurds on the ground, which are vastly more credible then reports of Turkey sending Sunni Muslims mercenaries to fight alongside the  Shia Muslims of Azerbaijan  (It’s not believable for more reasons then the obvious Sunni versus Shia dynamic) The PKK and the Armenians have forged relations in Syria that have been discussed more then once at the blog. Their friendly relations boggle my mind, since the Kurds killed many Armenians during the reign of the Ottomans. Apparently all forgotten?

  A number of foreign passports/identification has been retrieved from Armenians (using that term loosely) killed in battle. One was a Canadian citizen.  I’d seen news of his passing in the media here in Canada. So naturally this required some additional digging. Let’s connect the dots

CBC: Canadian citizen dies fighting in Armenia 

Kristapor Artin, a former Toronto resident who moved to Armenia in 2011, was killed while fighting against Azerbaijani forces in the breakaway Armenian-populated region, the Armenian National Committee of Canada (ANCC) said on Wednesday.


"It is with great sorrow that the Canadian-Armenian community mourns the passing of one of its repatriated members, Kristapor Artin," the ANCC said in a Facebook post, adding that he was "an active member of the Toronto Armenian community, before repatriating with his family to his homeland, Armenia.

 


Kristapor Artin is featured here

Christopher Artin was born in 1972 in Beirut, Lebanon. In 1986, he left for Canada. From 1993-1995, Christopher stayed in Armenia.. In 2001, he returned to Armenia and got married.

 Born in Beirut, Lebanon. Immigrated to Canada. Became a citizen. Then went to Armenia. Then came back to Canada. Maybe? Because his bio has some missing years. Where was he from 95 to 2001? Clearly he fought in 93/94 when Armenia ethnically cleansed the region of it’s Azerbaijan citizens. In 2001, he returned to Armenia and got married.

The FB page that features Kristapor Artin is tied to the organization called-  The International Center For Migration Policy Development (This NGO appears to be a front group for the movement of persons, globally)
Dig a little more And we get to the MIBMA(affilliated with aforementioned NGO) but dealing specifically with Armenia’s “border management”


The project is funded by the European Neighborhood Partnership Instrument (ENPI).  The project runs from January 2016 until December 2019.

The overall objective of the project is to enhance approximation of the migration and border management in Armenia to European standards of governance, in order to increase security, facilitate trade, and support the possible visa liberalization dialogue between the European Union and Armenia.
This NGO's work/purpose  appears to be a project to direct the Armenian diaspora into disputed territory in order to change the dynamics on the ground.  To fight/terrorize if need be. Like the early beginnings of Israel.       

4th - Pashinian, as has been repeatedly mentioned is a colour revolution flunkie. He has Macron fully on board.  The so called alt media has been dancing around this reality. But, it can’t be danced around unless the intent is to deceive. Pashinian is a servant to the global oligarchy that is determined to break up nations. That means Russia, Iran and Turkey as well as Azerbaijan. In order to create the remade ME/NA and Asia that is happening as I type this report.

5th- Some parties want Turkey and Russia at odds, for sure. So far it looks to me as if Russia is leaving Armenia to it’s own devices. Numerous reasons for this have already been mentioned. Such as Armenia’s refusal to settle the NK issue and Pashinian’s colour revolution leadership

-Possible Outcomes?

1- Western Imperial Powers will Recognize “Artsakh” Talked about this here previously. This move will certainly set the region alight!

2- Turkey and Russia will send peace keepers in. The issue of territory will be settled once and for all. The same type of cooperation as we see in Syria. Iran may participate as well.

An Astana 2.0 if you like?

As always, share some thoughts. Relevant to the situation of course.

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3rd Attempt at Ceasefire in Nagarno Karabakh- OSCE Press Release

pennyforyourthoughts2 - Sun, 10/25/2020 - 16:48

 OSCE Minsk

 Press Statement by the Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group

Washington D.C., 25 October, 2020 - The Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group (Igor Popov of the Russian Federation, Stephane Visconti of France, and Andrew Schofer of the United States of America) released the following statement today: 

The Co-Chairs met in Washington D.C. on October 24 with Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, and also participated in a joint meeting with the Foreign Ministers and U.S. Deputy Foreign Minister Stephen Biegun. The Personal Representative of the OSCE’s Chairman in Office, Andrzej Kasprzyk, also participated in the meetings.    

The Co-Chairs urged the sides to take immediate steps to implement all aspects of the October 10 Moscow Joint Statement in accordance with their commitments, noting that they had reaffirmed these commitments with Paris on October 18. The Co-Chairs also reminded the sides of the October 1, 2020 joint statement of United States President Donald J. Trump, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, as well as the October 5 joint statement of Secretary of State Secretary of State of the United States of America Michael R. Pompeo, Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs of France Jean-Yves Le Drian, and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov, calling on the sides to cease hostilities immediately and to resume substantive negotiations to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs.  

During their intensive discussions, the Co-Chairs and Foreign Ministers discussed implementing an immediate humanitarian ceasefire, possible parameters for monitoring the ceasefire, and initiating discussion of core substantive elements of a comprehensive solution, in accordance with the October 10 Joint Statement. The Co-Chairs and Foreign Ministers agreed to meet again in Geneva on October 29 to discuss, reach agreement on, and begin implementation, in accordance with a timeline to be agreed upon, of all steps necessary to achieve a peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in accordance with the basic principles accepted by the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia.  

I'd worked an a report for the second ceasefire but was unable to finish it. If I can tidy it up, I'll publish it- (It's saved in draft format presently)

Below is be the post covering the first attempt at ceasefire. 

Breaking: After 10 Hours of Negotiations Baku and Yerevan Agree to Ceasefire

 

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Libyan Ceasefire Agreement: Doomed to Fail? Unstable Since the US and France Intervened

pennyforyourthoughts2 - Fri, 10/23/2020 - 17:21

 And we see the hand of the US and France at play in Nagarno Karabakh- Make no mistake about it.  As for this ceasefire? I have my doubts.

What does Libya’s ceasefire deal contain?Libya has not had political stability since the 2011 NATO-backed uprising against Muammar Gaddafi  

 Who is involved?

Libya is split between the internationally recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli in the west and Khalifa Haftar’s self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) in the east.

The latest United Nations meetings in Switzerland were between five military officers from each side representing the GNA and LNA after they held preliminary talks in Egypt this month.

UN acting Libya envoy Stephanie Williams said they had agreed to a complete, countrywide, permanent ceasefire with immediate effect.

The truce does not include UN-designated “terrorist” groups such as ISIL (ISIS), which is present in parts of the south.

What must both sides do?

All military units and armed groups must pull back from the front lines and return to their camps. All foreign fighters and mercenaries must leave Libya within three months – by January 23.

Williams said there were mercenaries from up to nine countries fighting in Libya. Both the GNA, backed by Turkey, and the LNA, backed by Russia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, have fielded foreign combatants.

Any military agreements either side has struck with their foreign backers must also be suspended until a new unified government is in place, the deal said, with all foreign military trainers to depart.

How will it be implemented?

The two sides will set up a joint military committee to form an operations room commanding a limited force of regular personnel.

It will identify and categorise all Libya’s many armed groups with UN help and work out whether, and how, to integrate their fighters into state institutions.

A new joint police operations room would secure areas from which the two sides’ military forces have withdrawn.

Both sides will work with the UN Libya mission to set up a way to monitor the truce and they have asked the UN Security Council for a resolution to ensure compliance.

What happens next?

The two sides must continue with agreed measures to build confidence, including the opening of land and air routes between areas they control, curbing hate speech, exchanging detainees and restructuring a security force for oil facilities.

The two military delegations that struck the deal will reconvene soon with subcommittees to work out details on tough questions, including the withdrawal from front lines, the departure of mercenaries and the unification of armed forces.

A round of political talks is expected early next month in Tunis.

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