September 2015

The Battle For Syria

In early August, Obama declared that the US Air Force would protect US trained insurgents if attacked by the Syrian Army or Air Force. Buoyed by their success at being able to bomb Syrian infrastructure under the guise of attacking ISIS forces, they have ratcheted up the war against Syria with this latest move.

It is very audacious because if the Syrian govt. were to avoid attacking these US sponsored terrorists for fear of being attacked in turn by the USAF, then there is nothing to stop these terrorists from marching right into Damascus. This would be a intolerable situation.

In answer to this move, Russia is supplying more anti-aircraft missiles.

The missiles by themselves would immediately become a prime target for the USAF. But Russia is also sending more Russian technicians (and marines to protect them) to help in the training in the use of these missiles.

“I can tell you once again, that our servicemen and military experts remain there [in Syria] for the maintenance of Russian [military] hardware and assisting the Syrian army in using this hardware, there’s training under way,” Lavrov said, stressing that military hardware supplies will continue. source

There has been Russian personnel in Syria for decades but recently the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, indicated that these Russian instructors would be deployed in the field with the missiles and the Syrian forces. This means that if the USAF were to attack the missile batteries, they would also be striking Russian soldiers.

The US Administration know from the Georgia debacle in 2008 that Russia will not hesitate to retaliate against any attacks on their forces. And that is a serious problem for the US. Russia has the missile technology, the fighter aircraft and the electronic weapons to decisively defeat any US attack force. If this attack and defeat were to come about, the US would also suffer a massive political defeat around the world. Whatever is left of the myth of its all dominant position as the sole superpower would evaporate in a puff of smoke. Power is largely perception and the US has been leveraging that perception for a long, long time.

What is the US to do? Well, they've started to squeal like stuck pigs about Russia sending troops to Syria as if this will provoke a war when, in fact, to not send their technicians and specialists would ensure war. Russia is not deploying assault troops as there is no need to, at this stage. The US is also howling about the Russian Naval exercises off the coast of Syria this month. These ships (and, no doubt, accompanying submarines – which are almost impossible to detect) will nullify any further attack coming from any US/NATO fleet just like they did nearly two years ago.

I think it would be a reasonable to guess that accompanying the new missiles for Syria is electronic warfare equipment to defeat any fighter/bombers or missiles launched from the Incirlik air base in Turkey. I think it is also reasonable to say that Turkey will have been informed that it runs the risk of its air base being destroyed if it allows the US to persist in any attacks on Syrian soldiers and Russian advisers and technicians. Think Georgia.

After the Georgians attacked the Russian peacekeepers in South Ossetia, Russia went through the Georgian forces like a 'dose of salts' and went on to destroy all their military infrastructure to render them harmless before withdrawing from Georgia. Russians are very touchy about being attacked and for good reason.

As one sided as this stand-off may be, it is still a very delicate situation. It has been made worse by the US government disallowing its senior military personnel from direct communication with their Russian counterparts.

Moscow fully supports the revival of contacts between the Russian and American military, Lavrov said.
“If Washington, like [US Secretary of State] John Kerry reiterated, is ready to unfreeze such contacts, than here’s our welcome,” Lavrov said, recalling that when the contacts, now suspended on the US initiative, were in place, they were extremely stable and trustful.

This inter-service communication was cancelled after this incident late in 2013 where inter-agency communication prevented a military confrontation between the US and Russia over the firing and downing of American missiles aimed at Syria from escalating into a full-blown battle.

This isolation of these senior US commanders from their Russian counterparts makes them much more vulnerable to being misled by the Administration neocons who are desperate to maintain their imagined hegemony. And, most probably, that is the whole point. These are not rational people and are prepared to sacrifice anyone to get what they want even if it means a disastrous military confrontation. They think they create reality. Such is the handicap of psychopathy.

The US has prevailed upon Bulgaria and Ukraine to stop overflights of Russian cargo planes heading for Syria. There is the obvious motive of hindering the resupply of military materiel and the possible supply of electronic equipment. But Russia has other supply routes and a highly mobile and effective airborne Spetsnaz force and the US must have this in mind if Russian personnel ever come under fire from a ground invasion force.

Time is running out for the bankers, the paymasters of the neocons. They have managed to keep up the value of their dollar (which is the source of all their power) by depressing oil and gold prices and the values of other competing currencies while all the while the demand for the US dollar is shrinking and the supply is ever increasing due to the various bailouts and 'Quantitive Easings'. Quite a remarkable feat but it can't last. Countries around the world are increasingly jettisoning the dollar for trade purposes and China won't be denied their place in the sun with their Yuan increasingly becoming accepted as an international trade currency despite the best efforts of the bankers and their foot-dragging IMF.

The wounded Leviathan is a dangerous beast.

Further reading-
US backs those who want to use terrorists against Assad – Lavrov

Russia's Endgame in Syria

US Seeks Occupation as US Fighters Flood Syria
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